Russia managed to hit the U.S. on several diplomatic and strategic fronts on Friday, capping a week of rapidly deteriorating relations between the two super powers.
Within the span of a few hours, Russia’s parliament approved a treaty with Damascus allowing Moscow to keep its military forces in Syria indefinitely. Russia also announced that it would be flying bomber patrols close to U.S. military bases in the Pacific, while a spokesman said Russia is considering reopening its bases in Cuba and Vietnam.
And in the U.S. Friday morning, Secretary of State John Kerry said Russia and Syria should be investigated for possible war crimes. In the afternoon, other top U.S. officials officially blamed Russia for the hack of the Democratic National Committee and other related political organizations.
All this came a day after a Russian military spokesman said U.S. warplanes could be shot down over Syria if they strike government forces, and just days after Russian President Vladimir Putin pulled out of an agreegment to destroy weapons-grade plutonium.
Experts in U.S.-Russian relations say the events are the fruit of failed diplomacy, yet President Obama has no chance of making things right before leaving office in January. So it will all be up to his successor.
Because of its time as a world power, the U.S. has forgotten how to do diplomacy and weigh what it is willing to give up in exchange for what it wants, which is especially problematic as it continues to butt heads with Russia around the world.
“We’re used to the notion that we just tell other countries what we want. If they don’t do it, we punish them in some way,” said Matthew Rojansky, an analyst with the Wilson Center. “That’s not an option with Russia.”
Asked what he’d advise the Obama administration to do to take the first steps toward these kinds of negotiations with Russia, Rojansky said it’s too late for Obama to make any impact in this arena.
Because of the short amount of time left in Obama’s term, Putin will negotiate much harder with Obama than with the next commander in chief because he knows that time is not on Obama’s side, according to experts.
“I think that’s going to be really really hard,” Boris Zilberman, the deputy director of congressional relations at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said of Obama making progress in the Russian relationship. “I don’t think the Russians take him seriously.”
That means it’ll be up to either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton to solve this issue. While both candidates have presented ideas with respect to Russia that “do not sound like comprehensive, well-thought-out policies,” Rojansky said he is confident the next president will have a Russia strategy “because we don’t have another choice.”
After Russian lawmakers approved the treaty with Syria to allow Russian forces to stay indefinitely in the country, Reuters reported that Russia has built up its presence in Syria, including more troops, planes and advanced missile systems, since the U.S.-brokered cease-fire fell apart late last month.
It’s not just the Middle East where Russia is increasing its presence. Russia is reportedly expanding its bomber patrols in the Pacific near U.S. bases in Hawaii, Guam and Japan. The Russian military is also considering reopening its Soviet-era bases in Cuba and Vietnam, two places it pulled out of in 2001 to improve relations with the United States, the Associated Press reported. Without offering specifics, Deputy Defense Minister Nikolai Pankov told Russian lawmakers the ministry is “reviewing” the decision to leave.
Rojansky said that if the wants to repair the situation, it must first accept that Russia is not its friend and that it cannot beat Russia into submission. Then, American officials must look at what they really want, such as an end to the humanitarian crisis in Syria.
If so, it’s time for the U.S. to offer up something Russia wants that is less important to the U.S. than the humanitarian crisis that is seeing thousands being slaughtered. Some options are relief from sanctions or input into the European security process, Rojansky said.
“We can’t care equally about everything, that’s a fallacy,” he said, noting that because of the American position of power, it has not had to undertake this kind of diplomacy in a long time. “So I think there are deals to be made, there is diplomacy to be done, but we have to start from a rational premise.”
Zilberman also urged the next administration to not back down on its words, pointing to both Obama’s red line about using chemical weapons in Syria that had no follow-through and to Kerry’s call to the Russians days after vowing to end talks.
