The same percentage of Americans who bet against Barack Obama’s re-election in 2012 now say President Trump is unlikely to secure a second term, according to a new CNN poll released Thursday.
Fifty-four percent of U.S. voters expect Trump to lose his bid for another four years in the Oval Office, compared to only 40 percent think he will pull off a second victory in the 2020 presidential race. His predecessor faced similar numbers at this point during his first term, with 54 percent of voters predicting Obama would lose in 2012 and 44 percent thinking he would win.
However, this time around, Republicans are far more confident in their president’s re-election chances – 79 percent think Trump will win in 2020 – than Democrats were when Obama was two years away from his second presidential run. Just 69 percent of Democrats in 2010 thought Obama would win his re-election campaign, according to the CNN poll.
And despite speculation about a GOP primary challenge to Trump, at least three in four Republicans and right-leaning independents think the party should re-nominate Trump in 2020. Out of a list of six potential primary challengers – Vice President Mike Pence, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Oprah Winfrey, outgoing South Carolina Congressman Trey Gowdy and House Speaker Paul Ryan – not a single name drew more than 1 percent support.
Former Vice President Joe Biden currently has the broadest support among Democratic primary voters (84 percent), followed by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (75 percent) and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (68 percent), who has positioned herself as a leading critic of the Trump administration. Neither Biden nor Sanders have definitively ruled out a 2020 bid.
The CNN poll of 1,104 U.S. adults was conducted between March 22-25, before Trump announced another personnel change to his Cabinet with the firing of Veterans Affairs Secretary David Shulkin. Results contain a margin of error plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
