Russian President Vladimir Putin will face “substantial consequences” if he deploys forces into Belarus to help beleaguered autocrat Alexander Lukashenko control the mass protests against his rule, a top American diplomat warned.
“There would be substantial consequences for the relationship between Russia and the United States, between Russia and Europe,” Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, a U.S.-backed outlet. “The last four years has been very challenging for U.S.-Russian relations, but it is possible that it could be worse.”
Biegun, who met with a Belarusian opposition leader last week before traveling to Moscow for a private meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, issued the public warning after Putin announced that he has a “reserve group of law enforcement” on standby to assist Lukashenko. The outcry against the longtime dictator has threatened Russian influence in Belarus while also upending Western efforts to appeal to the regime and stymie Kremlin plans to absorb the former Soviet satellite state into a tighter political union.
Russian leaders have grown increasingly voluble in their support of Lukashenko.
“We condemn the attempts made by several foreign states to pressure the Belarusian lawful government and to support the opposition dissatisfied with the results of the presidential election,” Lavrov said Wednesday after meeting with Lukashenko’s top envoy. “We consider any interference in the domestic affairs or any attempts to impose intrusive mediation efforts against the will of Minsk and the Belarusian government unacceptable.”
Lavrov stipulated the Belarusian crisis has high stakes for the balance of power between Russia and Western powers, saying, “This is about geopolitics, the fight for the post-Soviet space.”
Biegun has been careful to downplay any competition between the U.S. and Russia in Belarus. “We did not seek or see this as a geopolitical contest,” he said.
The backlash against Lukashenko’s claim to have won 80% of the vote in the Aug. 9 election forced a reversal of Western policies toward Minsk, following more than a year of U.S. and Baltic officials reaching out to Lukashenko as he faced pressure from Putin to submit to tighter political control from Moscow.
“This is a contest between the Belarusian leader and his own people,” Biegun said. “And we’re trying to work with our partners to keep this at the front of this.”
