WATERLOO, Iowa — When Joe Biden visited Iowa for the first time after he declared his third presidential run in late April, he promised Democrats in the state he’d be there so often that they’d eventually grow sick of him.
It is now July and the former vice president is on only his third visit to the state, having skipped one big gathering to attend his granddaughter’s high school graduation.
Then, the 76-year-old, who spent 36 years in the Senate, was comfortably leading the rest of the Democratic pack by 10 points or more in the polls. But just a few weeks have turned a brashly confident campaign into one on the verge of crisis after a crushing debate performance by Kamala Harris, who attacked his handling of racial issues in the 1970s, and sinking poll numbers.
When Biden landed in Iowa on Wednesday, a new poll from A Focus on Rural America showed his support among Democrats in the state has plummeted 20 points since September, landing him in third place at 17% behind Elizabeth Warren at 20% and Kamala Harris at 18%. A third-place result in Iowa would signal the end of Biden’s presidential hopes.
That new poll came just 24 hours before Biden’s campaign released its second quarter fundraising numbers. While still raking in an impressive $21.5 million, Biden’s campaign fell behind South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who brought in a massive $24.8 million, further underscoring the tenuous nature of Biden’s front-runner status.
At a campaign rally at a United Auto Workers union hall in Waterloo, Iowa — a predominantly black city — Biden continued stressing his campaign theme that his White House would be a seamless continuation of Barack Obama’s presidency. Right before he addressed the crowd of roughly 200, he was introduced by Rev. Frantz Whitfield, once a spiritual adviser to the Obama White House.
For now, part of the core of Biden’s support is among black voters; primarily because of his eight years as Barack Obama’s vice president. But with Harris, who is black, surging, that backing is under threat. Biden achieved just 0.9% of the vote, finishing fifth, when he ran for president in 2008. In 1988 he didn’t even make it to the Iowa caucuses, dropping out beforehand — so he is far from a natural fit in the state.
There have been persistent concerns about his stamina, one Iowa supporter said after the debates that he “didn’t look well,” and his light campaign schedule.
During his open remarks for Biden, Whitfield announced his formal endorsement. “His run with … President Barack Obama inspired me to get involved with politics for the first time,” Whitfield said. “We can restore decency, compassion and dignity to the white house, and Joe Biden will do just that.”
As he addressed the crowd, Biden pitched himself as the pragmatic moderate who is the lone candidate who can beat Trump and contrasted himself with some of his more progressive rivals.
“It’s going to be a big debate among us all in this race, a lot of good people running. But I fundamentally disagree with anyone who says scrap Obamacare,” Biden told roughly 200 potential caucus-goers. “I’m against any Republican who says that, I’m against any Democrat who says that,” alluding to his 2020 rivals like Sens. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and Kamala Harris who have all come out in favor of a single, nationalized healthcare system.
“Obama and I became close friends. Our families became close friends,” Biden said. “My number two granddaughter is with his eldest daughter out in California right now hanging out at a friend’s house.” This was a reference to his granddaughter Maisy, 18, who attended the elite Sidwell Friends high school in Washington D.C. with former President Barack Obama’s younger daughter Sasha.
Yet despite his promises of restoring dignity and normality to Democrats who still long for the Obama-years, those who attended the event remain skeptical that Biden’s moment hasn’t already passed.
“I like Joe but whoever ends up being the nominee, I’ll support. Biden needs to get to Iowa more, I think he needs to get the union people backing him, towns like Waterloo are big union towns,” Linda Hazeli, 60, told the Washington Examiner. “The other candidates have been here a lot, I think he’s taking support here for granted. That’s what Hillary did in 2016.”
With his slumping poll numbers, Biden is no longer the main attraction in Iowa this week. Both Harris and Sanders are also campaigning in the state over the holiday, with the California lawmaker hosting a town hall in Des Moines that was attended by local kingmakers like state Sen. Claire Celsi.
“I have a concern because I hear people say Biden doesn’t have that killer instinct like some other candidates and people are saying in this day and age you have to be ruthless to win,” Melanie Cummings, 55, said. “He’s too empathetic and kind it makes me sad we’re at this stage now.”
