IN WHAT IS SHAPING UP to be the only serious GOP primary challenge next fall, conventional wisdom has Republican Pennsylvania senator Arlen Specter beating Republican representative Pat Toomey. Specter is starting out with all the advantages. As the incumbent, he already has the support of the Republican establishment: the White House, Pennsylvania’s junior Senator Rick Santorum, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, and at least four Pennsylvania GOP House members have lined up behind him. He already has a sizable campaign war chest (in the June filing report Specter had about $8.6 million to Toomey’s $1.5 million). Moreover, he has high statewide name recognition and a 60 percent approval rating. In a general election he would likely trounce whoever the Democrat is.
But in Pennsylvania’s closed primary, Specter could be vulnerable, especially if Toomey, a social and fiscal conservative, can get his message out to conservatives irritated with Specter’s left-leaning record. (In 2002 the American Conservative Union gave Specter a 50 percent rating. Toomey received 100 percent.)
