With low enthusiasm among Republicans, the 2026 midterm election map is looking worrisome for Republicans even after favorable redistricting, with Sabato’s Crystal Ball election tracking putting the current odds at 2018 levels.

President Donald Trump’s last midterm elections were in 2018, when Republicans suffered blistering losses that cost them the government trifecta, losing the House to the Democrats. A Monday analysis from Sabato warned of a possible repeat of this, with several polling metrics showing a situation equal to 2018, or even slightly more favorable toward Democrats than 2018.