Donald Trump isn’t having the kind of harmful down-ballot impact on Republicans that some predicted would turn both the House and Senate over to Democrats — at least so far.
Recent polling shows key congressional races have been immune to the influence of Trump, either in races where Republicans are trying to separate themselves from Trump, but also in races where the Republican is hoping to get a boost from Trump.
“I think there is a disconnect in most places, especially when the Republican candidate is well known and already well defined,” Ron Faucheux, who runs the non-partisan polling firm Clarus Research Group, told the Washington Examiner.
Trump’s impact on Republican races may be blunted by his effort to run like an independent candidate. Trump has long criticized the Republican establishment, and he escalated his fight with GOP elders this week by declaring himself “unshackled” from the party.
Dave Wasserman, who analyzes House races for the non-partisan Cook Political Report, said even after Trump has fallen behind Hillary Clinton by double digits, it’s not enough to truly threaten the House GOP majority, as some have suggested it could.
Double digit gains for Democrats in the House “seem more likely” now than it did a week ago, before the lewd-talk Trump tape was disclosed, Wasserman said. But a Democratic takeover is probably out of reach because only 37 House races are truly competitive, and Democrats need 30 seats to win back the majority.
The campaign arm of the House Democrats this week leaked details of a conference call in which they touted new poll numbers showing that the Democratic advantage on the generic ballot has increased, signaling better prospects for their candidates. Wasserman noted that Democrats have indeed boosted their advantage on the generic congressional ballot, “but not by as much as Trump has fallen since mid-September.”
And in the Senate, Republican prospects have held steady or even improved despite Trump’s October poll plummet.
Democrats have not pulled far ahead in any of the toss-up races, including New Hampshire and North Carolina, where GOP incumbents Kelly Ayotte and Richard Burr, respectively, remain in nearly tied races with their Democratic challengers.
In Ohio, where Trump’s once-healthy lead over Clinton has vanished, Republican incumbent Rob Portman has climbed to a 16-point advantage over Democrat Ted Strickland.
In Wisconsin, Senate GOP incumbent Ron Johnson has boosted his poll numbers from a double-digit deficit to a near-tie with Democratic challenger Russ Feingold, even though Clinton has held onto a 6 point lead in the state.
And in Missouri, a disconnect of another sort can be seen. Incumbent Republican Sen. Roy Blunt has fallen in recent polls, even as Trump has climbed, according to a new Monmouth University poll. The “vast majority” of likely Missouri voters, Monmouth polling director Patrick Murray said, are not aware Blunt endorsed Trump, who is up five points over Clinton in the poll.
Wasserman on Friday noted an interesting trend when it comes to how GOP voters view Trump. Those voters who Trump alienated in the past week are GOP-leaning, college-educated whites, according to NBC/Wall Street Journal and Fox News polls. These voters are more likely to split the ticket, or vote for a Republicans lower on the ballot even if they do not vote for Trump.
Still, Wasserman agrees that the GOP faces another sort of risk: that Trump might become so toxic, Republicans decide not to show up at all on Election Day.
“Trump’s ‘unshackled’ antics could hurt GOP turnout and substantially increase the odds Democrats score a gain in the 10 to 20 seat range,” Wasserman said.
