States such as California, Massachusetts, and New York that have been issuing strict emissions mandates absent federal policy are poised to expand their scope even further as they find a new federal partner in President-elect Joe Biden.
In fact, energy suppliers, home builders, and others in the industry are expecting some of their policy battles to remain at the state and local level, even as the Biden administration seeks to advance the most aggressive climate agenda of any president.
They’re preparing for largely liberal states to continue requiring significant shifts in the way they power the grids, fuel vehicles, and heat homes. The Biden administration’s plans either won’t affect or would only encourage those actions.
“The writing’s on the wall, and we’re moving forward this way anyway,” said Chris Ochoa, the senior counsel for codes, regulatory, and legislative affairs for the California Building Industry Association. The group, whose members build 85% of the new homes in the state, is in discussions with California energy officials, who are considering incentives and restrictions to move new construction away from fossil fuels.
The California Energy Commission, in an effort to update the building codes, is poised to encourage the use of heat pumps for water heaters instead of natural gas. In later updates to codes, the commission could require electric appliances over gas. Around 40 cities and localities in California have also taken steps to restrict natural gas appliances in new construction.
Ochoa said he doesn’t see the Biden administration affecting California’s push toward all-electric buildings and vehicles, which his members are advocating should occur at a slower pace.
“We’re not opposed to decarbonization and taking action, but we feel like we need to pump the brakes a little until we have more answers here,” Ochoa said. He pointed to outstanding questions on how requiring electric appliances would affect home costs in the state and electric grid reliability.
California’s policy moves are just one example of states in recent months weighing or issuing stricter policies to curb emissions.
On Jan. 4, Massachusetts’s legislature approved a sweeping climate bill to set the state on a path to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. In a separate climate plan unveiled in late December, Republican Gov. Charlie Baker laid out proposals to curb emissions that included adopting California’s directive to achieve all zero-emission vehicle sales by 2035. Baker is still considering the legislature’s bill and must decide whether to sign it by Thursday.
New York and New Jersey have, in the last few months, said they would also move toward adopting that directive, which would essentially ban new gas-powered car sales by that year.
During the Trump administration, these kinds of policies sought to fill a void left as federal agencies peeled back or weakened national emissions controls in the power, transportation, and other sectors.
For Biden, however, these state policies offer him a leg to stand on as he promises to slash emissions quickly and regain trust from other countries that the U.S. is a willing partner in addressing climate change. Those state policies may actually be a driving force behind emissions cuts in the near term, as Biden works through a slow regulatory process to advance his own mandates.
“We just had such tremendous brain drain across the federal government in the last four years. … It’s going to take time for them to staff back up, and we cannot lose any more time,” said Julie Cerqueira, the executive director of the U.S. Climate Alliance, a group of more than two dozen governors committed to cutting emissions in line with the Paris climate agreement.
States may also be able to advance policies that Biden won’t be able to pass because of the narrow margins in Congress, such as a 100% clean electricity standard.
“Many of these states can actually move forward with something like that,” Cerqueira added. “That starts to actually build a national framework.”
Biden’s tenure will mean a dramatically different relationship between states with ambitious emissions policies and the federal government, Cerqueira and environmentalists said.
The Trump administration acted like a heckler to states who were aggressive on emissions policies, sharply criticizing and in some ways undermining state efforts to go green. The Biden administration, meanwhile, is poised to be their biggest cheerleader, looking to equip state governments with tools to go further and faster.
Perhaps the most important tool is funding through an economic stimulus responding to the pandemic, said Kit Kennedy, the senior director of the Natural Resources Defense Council’s climate and clean energy program.
That would allow states and cities to “support their climate ambitions with real money” and “combine COVID economic recovery with clean energy programs that will grow jobs,” Kennedy said.
In some cases, the Biden administration can also remove barriers for states to enact stricter emissions policies. For example, Biden is expected to restore California’s ability to set its own greenhouse gas tailpipe standards stricter than federal limits that Trump officials eliminated.
That authority could be critical to the state’s ability to pursue its directive to require 100% zero-emissions vehicle sales by 2035. The waiver also allows other states to adopt California’s stricter program.
Biden’s team can also break down barriers Trump officials at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission erected to make it harder for states in the mid-Atlantic region to subsidize renewable and zero-carbon energy, said Kathryne Cleary, a senior research associate with Resources for the Future.
Removing that policy, known as the minimum offer price rule, could allow states in that region to not only set more aggressive clean energy standards, but also help them meet those standards at a lower cost, Cleary added.
Industry groups, however, are hoping that the Biden administration can learn some lessons from states where they feel policymakers have set mandates that restrict a specific energy source in a way that is too aggressive or abrupt.
The American Gas Association, whose members would be hard hit by any ban on natural gas appliances, is encouraging the Biden administration to look at the bigger picture, something the group argues California cities pushing all-electric buildings aren’t doing.
“Sometimes policy might happen in an echo chamber where we have a pretty small local group of individuals who are pushing for this policy change without fully appreciating or, quite frankly, having a larger conversation with the community,” said Daniel Lapato, the gas group’s senior director of state affairs. He pointed to opposition to gas appliance bans from businesses, homeowners, restaurants, heating and air conditioning contractors, and other local groups.
“The ultimate goal needs to be how do we combat climate change or how do we clean up the local air quality from an environmental justice perspective or how do we lower the energy burden on working families,” Lapato said. “It’s a messy, hard conversation, but I think if you’re able to have it, you will have successful energy policies that will withstand time.”
