California losing a House seat for the first time in history could spark political tumult as incumbent Democrats and a few Republicans jockey to survive the decennial redrawing of congressional boundaries by the state’s independent redistricting commission.
Democrat-held congressional districts in and around Los Angeles County are most endangered, party insiders say, threatening to end the careers of veteran Reps. Alan Lowenthal, Grace Napolitano, Lucille Roybal-Allard, and Maxine Waters, who range in age from 79 to 84. California’s 15-member Citizens Redistricting Commission, divided equally among Democrats, Republicans, and independents, is prohibited from drawing maps that benefit or disadvantage any particular politician. But redistricting observers believe such an outcome is likely.
“The loss of a congressional seat will throw the line-drawing into some turmoil,” said Garry South, a Democratic strategist in California. “It is probably inevitable that there will be one or more cases of two incumbents being thrown into the same seat — and it may not be only two Democrats.”
California controls 53 House seats, by far the most of any state.
That number is set to drop for the first time since statehood in 1849, after sluggish population growth and outbound migration left the Golden State just shy of 40 million residents, according to the 2020 census. Adding to the political uncertainty caused by that loss, new district boundaries are not expected to be unveiled until possibly next year in February, forcing the state to push back its June 2022 primary.
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In 2012, after the 2010 census, two prominent incumbent Democrats from Los Angeles County were redrawn into the same San Fernando Valley district. So, it did not take long for news of California’s loss of a seat to motivate anxious lawmakers to move quickly to capitalize on coming changes, or at least avoid the ax. Some who aspire to Congress even decided to launch early campaigns, betting the new district lines will change radically enough to make incumbents vulnerable.
For instance, on April 15, Walnut City Councilman Eric Ching filed papers with the Federal Election Commission regarding his intent to run as a Republican in California’s Orange County-based 39th Congressional District, held by Rep. Young Kim, a top GOP recruit in 2020 and sure to have the party’s support for reelection next year. Under California’s top-two primary, the top two finishers advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation.
Overall, Democrats would appear to be more at risk for the simple reason that they control a solid majority of California House seats. It is a political dynamic neither the state’s independent redistricting commission nor its top-two primary system managed to affect, but that reflects the will of the vast majority of voters there.
As such, the latest round of redistricting could lead to Democratic retirements, with some elderly members choosing to go out on top rather than run the risk of losing in a less favorable district or in competitive Democratic primaries, as ambitious politicians look to muscle out established incumbents in what are essentially new districts. Hovering over all of these decisions is the fate of the House majority on Capitol Hill.
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Democrats hold roughly a five-seat advantage before redistricting decisions across the country that could favor Republicans are factored in. With Democrats controlling the White House, historical trends would suggest the GOP has a considerable edge in its quest to recapture the chamber after four years in the minority.
“Don’t you think a few of the members who have been around since the early ’90s might hang it up if it looks like Dems lose the House? We have quite a few members over 75,” a Democratic operative in California said. “We also have state legislators who might want to jump.”
