Tropical Storm Cristobal became the earliest third named storm over the Atlantic Ocean in what forecasters predict will be an above-average hurricane season.
As of Tuesday, Cristobal was packing 40 mph maximum sustained winds after forming in the Gulf of Mexico northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula in the Bay of Campeche, according to the National Hurricane Service. The system is moving southwest at a leisurely 3 mph, but some forecasts show it turning north toward Louisiana this week.
Most intensity models show Cristobal is expected to maintain tropical storm force winds as it moves through the Gulf of Mexico. The system is predicted to bring 10 to 20 inches of rain to parts of Mexico before it moves north.
Hurricane Hunters find that Tropical Depression 3 has become Tropical Storm Cristobal. Here are the earlier 10 AM CDT June 2nd key messages for the system. More info: https://t.co/tW4KeFW0gB pic.twitter.com/dtKUG4Ouni
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) June 2, 2020
Water temperatures are a major factor in the intensity and formation of tropical weather. The Bay of Campeche is about 3 to 4 degrees above average.
CNN meteorologist Brandon Miller said the forecast is tricky.
“The long-term forecast is very complex due to potential interactions with land and strong winds that are expected to influence the vortex,” Miller said. “Model forecasts display a myriad of possibilities ranging from the storm dying over the rough terrain of southern Mexico, to a second circulation forming in the southern Gulf of Mexico that could become Tropical Storm Dolly.”
Hurricane season in the Atlantic began on Monday and will last through the end of November. The first named storm of 2020, Tropical Storm Arthur, formed before the start of the season in mid-May off the east coast of Florida and moved offshore up the U.S. coast before turning east and diffusing out over the ocean.
