Perhaps more than any recent election, watching how women vote this year is a critical variable in predicting the outcome of the presidential race. First, female voters comprise a growing share of the U.S. electorate. Men and women no longer represent roughly equal parts of the voting universe as they did a generation ago. For example, in the 2000 presidential race, 52 percent of voters were females while 48 percent were males. Four years later, the women’s share grew to 54 percent of the electorate compared to 46 percent for men. This year analysts believe women could represent 55 pecent to 56 percent of the total electorate. But 2008’s contentious and extended Democratic nomination battle also raises some new questions about women voters. Will those who supported Hillary Clinton now come around and vote for Barack Obama? Pew released a new poll this week that sheds some light on this question. In some parts of the women’s voting bloc Obama is performing quite well–particularly among independents and younger Americans. But older women–much like their male counterparts–are still a weak spot for the Illinois Senator. Pew writes this:
The Pew study shows McCain doing about the same among women as George Bush was performing against Al Gore at this point in the 2000 race. But it also demonstrates Bush and Kerry were virtually tied among women in the summer of 2004. Keep in mind, however, the other reason Obama has to over perform with women–he’s currently losing among men as the most recent Newsweek and other polls show.
