We are down to the last 100 hours in Iowa. On the Democratic side the big factor to watch is support for John Edwards in the stretch. If he stays in the hunt, he could either win by an inch or simply pull enough anti-Hillary vote away from Obama to give the former First Lady an comeback win. If he fades a bit, my guess is Obama will win with a decent margin. My gut tells me that Edward’s latest inching up in Iowa polls is an result of the big third party television spending on his behalf, and will not be there for him on caucus day. But this Democratic Iowa race is very tight now, and just about anything could happen. Meanwhile I now think Mitt Romney has a better than 50/50 chance to beat Huckabee in Iowa and John McCain will beat Fred Thompson for third place. Good chance Freddie then drops out; probably to endorse McCain. N.H. is going to be a whopper of a race.
