Based on turnout, Democrats are blowing the doors off Republicans this presidential cycle. For example, on Super Tuesday, 14.6 million Democrats cast ballots compared to only 9 million Republicans. But is a particular candidate causing the surge? Many believe the boost is due to Hillary Clinton being the first woman candidate and Barack Obama’s appeal among young voters, African-Americans and independents. But which one of those four groups–blacks, women, younger voters, or independents–has witnessed the largest surge in primary turnout this year compared to 2004? The answer: young people and women account for more of the surge in Democratic turnout than blacks and independents. University of Wisconsin political scientist Tom Holbrook provides some fascinating data comparing the four groups. He analyzes turnout among blacks, women, 18-29 year olds, and independents in 18 states with available exit poll data for 2004 and 2008 Democratic primaries. He compares the share of the overall electorate each group represented in 2004 and then reports how that changed in 2008. Here is what he finds. Compared to 2004, the share of the overall vote represented by 18-29 year olds rose by a little over 4 percent, women surged just under 4 percent, blacks increased a little over 2 percent of the total, and independents stayed virtually the same. In other words, young people and women grew the most in their share of the Democratic electorate in 2008 primaries, blacks increased at a little lower rate, and independents stayed about the same. So while we can’t say for sure if it’s Barack or Hillary, young people and women account for the biggest gains in Democratic turnout in these exit polls in 2008–a trend that could hold big implications for the general election.
