Turnout may be the key to Tuesday?s mayoral election in Baltimore, particularly if any candidate has a shot at beating Mayor Sheila Dixon.
With historically low voter participation in city primaries, it is difficult for challengers to make up ground.
“Generally the turnout for citywide elections is roughly a third of all eligible voters,” said Matthew Crenson, a professor of political science at Johns Hopkins University. “It tends to be low.”
The last mayoral primary election without an elected incumbent was in 1999, when Gov. Martin O?Malley ? a city councilman ? triumphed over two other candidates with just 67,000 votes, a small faction of the city?s potential electorate.
But demographics may also play a role, argues Crenson, particularly if turnout is low.
“There is a real gender gap among African-American voters,” he said. “Female participation is much higher. The result is we may come out with all three citywide posts held by black women, which is a reflection of the Baltimore electorate.”
The City Council president?s race, which pits two black candidates ? City Councilman Kenneth Harris and incumbent Stephanie Rawlings-Blake ? against community activist Michael Sarbanes, who is white, also might influence turnout.
“If anything increased turnout, it will be the race for City Council president,” said Lester Spence, also a professor of political science at Johns Hopkins.
“It will be really interesting to see [how] two black candidates running against a white candidate affects turnout,” he said.
“If some of that conversationis bleeding into the campaign, then people are much more likely to turn out,” he said.
Richard Vatz, professor of political rhetoric at Towson University, said a somewhat moribund campaign wracked with campaign finance scandals has failed to galvanize voters.
“There does not appear to be an issue that has polarized voters and motivate them to come out in high numbers,” he said.
