The Trump administration foresees a diplomatic setback for China brewing in El Salvador, which recently cut ties with Taiwan but just elected a president opposed to corrupt dealings with the leading Communist power.
“The election of Nayib Bukele is extraordinarily positive,” a senior administration official said of the 37-year-old outsider candidate who rolled to victory on Sunday in El Salvador. “Who knows, we may even see the first re-adjustment of diplomatic relations — but this time away from China towards Taiwan?”
President-elect Nayib Bukele upset a two-party system that has dominated the Central American country since the end of a civil war in 1992. Leaders of both parties have been marred by corruption scandals, while outgoing President Salvador Sanchez Ceren has been congenial with both Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Bukele’s victory could lead to the rise of a new U.S. partner in Central America, just as Maduro comes under intense international pressure.
“The United States and El Salvador share a strong partnership based on our joint efforts to improve security and our mutual commitment to the rule of law and inclusive economic development,” Robert Palladino, the State Department deputy spokesman said Tuesday. “It is in our common interest to reduce illegal immigration and combat transnational crime by fostering economic growth, good governance, and security.”
The realization of those hopes would lead to a newly reliable partner in Central America in the context of a high-profile clash with the Maduro regime and a longer-term competition with China in the Western Hemisphere. Trump and numerous Latin American countries joined last month in recognizing Juan Guaido as the interim president in Caracas, but the diplomatic push was delayed in recent years in part by the Sanchez Ceren government.
Key leaders at the Organization of the American States nearly succeeded in issuing a “strong condemnation” of Maduro in 2017, but they were stopped just short.
“It was stopped last minute by a maneuver from the Salvadoran foreign minister,” a senior OAS official told the Washington Examiner. “They were just about to vote and they had the numbers. the Salvadorans asked for the recess and in that recess, we don’t know what happened, but a few Caribbean votes changed.”
The thirteen projects that China has pledged to finance in El Salvador since August, when Sanchez Ceren severed diplomatic relations with Taiwan in order to form a new relationship with the government in Beijing, are expected to be similarly opaque.
U.S. officials regard the $150 million as another example of what Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has called a “treasury-run empire build.” In Sri Lanka, for example, China gained sovereignty over a valuable port by loaning an impoverished country more money than they could repay, and then taking control of the port when the debtor government defaulted.
“They’re positioning themselves in all the different ports — in the Straits of Malacca, in the South China Sea,” said Rep. Ted Yoho, R-Fla., told the Washington Examiner in August. “Then you bolster that up with ships in El Salvador, possible ships in Cuba, possible ships in Haiti. … I think it’s a big cause for concern.”
Bukele’s win suggests a change is coming, including for the decision to cut diplomatic ties with Taiwan.
“That’s a decision for the new government of El Salvador,” the senior administration official said. “There’s a lot of questions in El Salvador in regards to the corrupt practices of the current [president] and a lot of their dealings with the Chinese that were very shady and nontransparent. So I think that, in that regards, a lot of the writing is on the wall.”
