The movement to recall Wisconsin State Senators based on their vote on the Budget Repair Bill heated up as reports came out today that one target, Republican Randy Hopper, had generated enough signatures to move toward the next phase of the process.
Hopper, for those of you following the events in Wisconsin closely, is in jeopardy not just for his vote, but for allegations that he has been living out of the district due to a messy divorce triggered by an affair with a then Republican Assembly staffer.
A string of stories related to his personal exploits have come out in recent weeks which suggest that his ex-wife has become an enthusiastic supporter of his recall and that efforts were undertaken to find subsequent state employment for his mistress.
Equally troubling for Hopper is the fact that his original election from the 18th Senate District was by an extremely thin margin. Though his district has traditionally been a solidly Republican one, President Obama actually carried the area in 2008. While it moved back to its normal right of center position last year, its underlying partisanship is not enough to guarantee Hopper’s safety, especially in light of his personal troubles.
Over at the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Wisconsin Voter blog, Craig Gilbert does a fantastic job of laying out the electoral dynamics of each of the state’s 33 Senate districts. Wisconsin law allows for recalls only for those in office for at least one year. Thus, only those Senators elected in the 2008 cycle are vulnerable.
For Democrats seeking to pick up the three seats they need to gain control of the chamber, those most vulnerable beyond Hopper include La Crosse’s Dan Kapanke (32nd District) and Alberta Darling of River Hills (8th District). All three of these members won their most recent elections by very small margins—Hopper by .2%; Kapanke by 2.9%; and Darling by 1%. The other interesting thing to note about them is that they represent three very different parts of the state.
Thus, should Democrats succeed in knocking off these three incumbents, it bodes well for their efforts to achieve state wide success next year and beyond.
Darling represents a district that essentially forms a ring around the northern half of Milwaukee. Overwhelmingly suburban, its northern and western parts (Menomonee Falls, Germantown, and Mequon) are solidly Republican. However, its eastern parts, especially those hugging Lake Michigan just north of Milwaukee (Shorewood, Whitefish Bay, Glendale, and Fox Point) have been trending Democratic recently, mirroring the behavior other “inner suburbs” across the country.
Kapanke hails from the far western part of Wisconsin, along the Mississippi River. Centered around the city of La Crosse, he represents a section of Wisconsin with a political tradition rooted in Wisconsin’s Progressive history. Heavily rural, southwestern Wisconsin nonetheless is one of the most consistent contributors of Democratic votes. Not only did Obama do extremely well here, but so did John Kerry and Al Gore.
Hopper’s central Wisconsin district occupies a part of the state that has become increasingly competitive in recent cycles. The main population centers of the distict are Oshkosh and Fond du Lac. Both have a relatively sizable manufacturing base that could produce enough blue collar and union workers to offset the more solidly Republican rural parts of the district. While the 2008 returns would seem to suggest the high water mark of potential Democratic leanings for the district, Obama’s victory in the 18th suggests that in the right circumstances there are enough votes to elect a Democrat.
While the mood and political profiles of these districts suggest an opening for Democrats, there are still many roadblocks ahead.
One danger that exists in a recall effort is that those opposing the incumbent fail to rally around a single challenger.
Wisconsin recalls have a primary component. Thus, if anti-Hopper, Darling, or Kapanke forces splinter during their primaries, they may fail to oust the incumbent in the second phase of voting. While this doesn’t seem likely at this point given the energy behind the recall efforts, until actual candidates emerge we can’t be certain what types of dynamics will ensue.
Second, of course, is the danger that the high degree of mobilization and energy now raging across Wisconsin peters out over the next several months. As with every election, turnout will ultimately decide whether or not these recalls are successful. Any vote is still several months away and it will be up to recall supporters to keep their ranks informed and organized. While the state’s Government Accountability Board will no doubt try to coordinate the numerous recalls, it is possible that they could be held on different days.
This scenario would no doubt add confusion to the process and potentially lower turnout.
While the recall process is no doubt lengthy and will require its supporters to remain engaged and organized, those seeking to punish Republican Senators for their votes have three prime targets in places with enough history of Democratic voting to make victory at least possible.
