A month ago, a contested Democratic convention seemed plausible, even likely. Now, there may not be a convention at all.
Although both the Republican and Democratic national committees have repeatedly said they plan on holding their conventions in the summer, the outbreak of the coronavirus could prove severely disruptive, even debilitating. With tens of millions of dollars on the line in terms of stimulus for the host cities — Democrats in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, July 13-16 and Republicans in Charlotte, North Carolina, Aug. 24-27 — both parties find themselves in tricky situations.
In the case of the Republican convention, unless the outbreak slows immensely, holding the event today would appear to be in direct violation of the North Carolina’s new restrictions. On Tuesday, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, said that the police would enforce bans on gatherings of more than 100 people for the next eight weeks.
The same day, Wisconsin announced even more draconian restrictions. All gatherings of more than 10 people, Democratic Gov. Tony Evers declared, would be banned for an undetermined period of time.
Health experts are split on how long such restrictions would be necessary. A paper released by the Imperial College of London earlier this week forecasts the coronavirus outbreak to last 18 months and calls on governments around the world to continue implementing extreme social distancing orders for the foreseeable future.
Should the threat of the virus wane during the summer, a time where many virologists believe transmission would be more difficult, the number of attendees would likely raise concern from health experts.
In 2016, for example, both parties saw roughly 50,000 individuals pass through the convention halls. Reports Wednesday afternoon indicated that the Trump administration sees the spread of the coronavirus lasting for over a year, meaning such gatherings of the thousands, never mind the tens of thousands, would likely need to be curtailed throughout the summer.
Even if the conventions were cut off from the public, thousands of delegates would need to appear in order to cast their votes for the nominee.
Already, the nature of this cycle’s primary has changed dramatically because of the pandemic. A number of states, including Ohio, Maryland, Kentucky, Georgia, and Louisiana, have all moved their contests to the spring or summer.
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who has no effective path to the Democratic nomination at this point but still has yet to drop out, signaled that he was uncomfortable with the idea of holding in-person primaries later. His concerns were echoed by numerous liberal and left-wing activist groups that called on the remaining states to either postpone their primaries or hold them entirely through vote-by-mail.
