The Republican presidential primaries have been chaotic thus far. And the chaos could continue.
Nearly a third (31 percent) of likely GOP caucus goers say they could change their vote before Monday, according to a fresh survey from Public Policy Polling. The new data suggest that “there are still a lot of votes on the table,” PPP wrote in a release accompanying the results.
What the numbers imply, though, is a mixed bag. On the one hand, Trump may be insulated from such fickle caucus goers, as 80 percent of his supporters say they’re “firmly committed to him”. Compare that to 71 percent of Cruz’s backers and a paltry 65 percent of Rubio’s.
However, PPP explains the flip side:
Were such a scenario to break, there’s “a real possibility” Rubio could capture 20 to 25 percent, PPP states. Its poll currently projects 31 percent for Trump, 23 percent for Cruz and 14 percent for Rubio, taken from a sample of 780 people.
Anecdotally, THE WEEKLY STANDARD’s Steve Hayes has seen signs of the volatility in person. He writes in a dispatch from West Des Moines:
Read the whole thing here.
PPP also found a sizeable group of Republican caucus goers willing to change their minds in the run-up to the 2012 vote. The number was only 24 percent then, to today’s 31. But the caucus four years ago was an unstable mess, with former Representative Ron Paul, Governor Mitt Romney and Senator Rick Santorum running neck-and-neck-and-neck all the way to election day. PPP’s final poll showed Paul with 20 percent, Romney with 19 percent and Santorum with 18 percent.
The final tally was 24.6 percent for Santorum, 24.5 percent for Romney and 21.4 percent for Paul — not bad for such an unpredictable event.
