A tropical depression or storm is expected to form in the Gulf of Mexico in the next couple days, bringing with it the threat of heavy rain, strong winds, and flooding along the U.S. coastline. The state of Louisiana appears to be in its crosshairs for now.
The National Hurricane Center gives it a 70% chance of tropical development in the next 48 hours and an 80% chance by the weekend.
“A broad low pressure area has emerged over Apalachee Bay in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for tropical cyclone formation and development over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late Wednesday or Thursday while the system moves westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico,” the National Hurricane Center said in its Tuesday afternoon outlook.
“This disturbance has the potential to produce heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle during the next several days. In addition, this system could produce wind and storm surge impacts later this week or this weekend from Louisiana to the Upper Texas coast, and interests along the Gulf Coast should continue to monitor its progress,” the NHC added.
If the area of low pressure currently centered over Florida develops into a tropical cyclone, it would be named Barry. Weather models, including the highly regarded European model, show the disturbance slowly making its way west and making landfall over Louisiana by mid-weekend. However, model predictions could change over time.
Development of tropical system in Gulf of Mexico will be slow … but a broad circulation should be quite evident in 24-hours w/storm formation in 48-72 hours.
If named, then Barry would head west with possible landfall along the northern Gulf coast — Louisiana. pic.twitter.com/kWnnBonXsZ
— Ryan (@RyanMaue) July 9, 2019
While the latest disturbance will not likely reach hurricane strength — a tropical cyclone with sustained maximum winds of at least 74 mph — the disturbance still has the potential to wreak lots of havoc, including among the constellation of oil and gas rigs in the Gulf of Mexico. AccuWeather forecasts a general two to eight inches of rain likely along the coast of the Florida Panhandle to the upper part of the Texas coast. Louisiana could see much more.
“Portions of southern Louisiana could pick up 1-2 feet of rain from late this week through the weekend,” said AccuWeather hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski.
Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards has urged residents prepare by checking emergency supplies and keeping tabs on notifications from the Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness and local media for updates. “My office will continue to communicate and coordinate with our local and federal partners to prepare for any potential impact from this system,” the Democrat said in a tweet Monday.
1 PM EDT: Here are the latest Key Messages on the system that has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in the northern Gulf of Mexico later this week. For more, see https://t.co/tW4KeFW0gB and https://t.co/SiZo8ohZMN #AL92 pic.twitter.com/ESSHOD1s8g
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) July 9, 2019
An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is ready to investigate the disturbance on Wednesday “if necessary,” the National Hurricane Center said.
Over the past couple days forecasters have been tracking an area of low pressure sweep over southeastern states towards the warm waters of the Gulf. Forecasters are colloquially calling this a “home brew” system, as it projected to develop over the waters near the U.S. as opposed to off the west coast of Africa, which is not uncommon in the early part of the hurricane season.
So far it has been a rather quiet Atlantic hurricane season, which officially began on June 1. There has only been one named storm so far, Andrea, which formed into an organized tropical system in May south of Bermuda and quickly petered out.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which is the parent agency of National Hurricane Center, predicted in May that the Atlantic hurricane season would be near-normal in 2019. They also predicted there would likely be between nine and 15 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher, four to eight that could become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher, and two to four major hurricanes that are Category 3, 4, or 5 storms with winds of 111 mph or higher.
The outlook reflected two “competing climate factors” this year. “The ongoing El Nino is expected to persist and suppress the intensity of the hurricane season. Countering El Nino is the expected combination of warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and an enhanced west African monsoon, both of which favor increased hurricane activity,” the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.
In the Pacific Ocean, there has been a little more activity with three named storms, including Barbara, which had been a powerful Category 4 hurricane but has dissipated and the remnants of which are expected to bring some soggy weather to Hawaii.
