The balance of the Senate could remain a mystery for several weeks after Nov. 8, thanks to an unusual election process in Louisiana that is likely to leave the political outcome of its Senate race unknown for another month.
With the Senate margin already expected to be razor-thin for either party, that could mean election night leaves the Senate hanging with 50 seats for one party and 49 for the other. Republicans today have 54 seats in the Senate, but are defending many more seats than Democrats, and are widely expected to lose a few and maybe even lose the majority.
“Suddenly, Louisiana could cause the Senate to break even or give 51 votes for either one of these political parties,” University of Louisiana political science professor Joshua Stockley told the Washington Examiner. “That could change the calculus for either party tremendously.”
It could also leave the Senate in disarray for weeks as the two parties wait for the Louisiana runoff in order to find out who will control the majority. November is a critical organizing period for lawmakers in Congress who elect leaders and establish committee ratios based on the outcome of the election.
Congress must also pass a fiscal 2017 spending bill to keep the government operating past a December deadline. An uncertain majority in the Senate will leave the parties without the much-desired leverage that would come if either Democrats or Republicans knew they would control the gavel in 2017.
Instead they might be left waiting for Louisiana.
Louisianans call their November contest the “jungle primary” and it lives up to the name by allowing every candidate from any party onto the November ballot without culling the list.
This election, the ballot includes 24 Senate candidates, including eight Republicans, eight Democrats and a bevy of Libertarians and Independents. The seat was left open after Sen. David Vitter, a Republican, decided not to run for re-election.
The winner on Nov. 8 must earn at least 50 percent of the vote outright in order to succeed Vitter. If no candidate crosses that threshold, a runoff election is scheduled to take place Dec. 10 between the two candidates who earn the most votes.
Political prognosticators in the Pelican State predict the top vote-getters in the Senate race on Tuesday will be Republican John Kennedy and Democrat Foster Campbell, and neither is expected to win 50 percent of the vote.
“There’s a good chance we won’t know the precise partisan composition of the Senate after election night because I think it is likely we are going to see a Republican and a Democrat emerge out of Louisiana’s primary,” Stockley said.
The November ballot could also produce two Republicans as top finishers or two Democrats, which would eliminate partisan uncertainty but would still require a runoff between the two candidates.
Polling suggests a party face-off in December.
Southern Media & Opinion Research released a survey on Oct. 26 that found Kennedy, the state treasurer, leading with 22 percent of the vote. Campbell, the state’s public service commissioner, trailed in the poll with 16 percent of the vote.
Just a month earlier, things looked brighter for the GOP, with polls showing Kennedy and fellow Republican and U.S. Rep. Charles Boustany as the two leading candidates.
The possibility of a Republican-Democrat runoff in December was supported by a September poll by Raycom Media and WVUE-TV (New Orleans). Just like the Southern Media poll, this poll found Republican Kennedy and Democrat Campbell leading.
The political uncertainty in Louisiana’s Senate race is fueled by last year’s surprise victory in the governor’s race by John Bel Edwards, a Democrat who defeated Republican Sen. John Vitter.
Louisiana has long been considered relatively safe Republican territory, but Democrats view Bel Edwards as a sign they can win federal races as well. Other than Bel Edwards, however, Democrats have struggled to win either state-wide or federal offices.
Former Sen. Mary Landrieu, a Democrat, won her seat in 2008 in the wave that accompanied President Barack Obama’s victory, but lost her 2014 bid for a second term to Sen. Bill Cassidy, a Republican.
Between Landrieu and Edwards, Stockley noted, “that’s a seven year losing streak.”
Stockley said he does not believe the state is turning blue, as Democrats may hope. Rather, voters are willing to support Democrats if they don’t like the GOP candidate, as was the case with Vitter, who had to contend with a past personal scandal and GOP anger over his attacks on fellow Republicans during the gubernatorial primary.
“I still think you have to consider it likely that the ultimate outcome in December points toward a Republican Senator replacing David Vitter, ” Stockley said. “But that is not a guarantee.”
