Scientists project that the United States is on track to record about 98,000 more deaths due to COVID-19 by Dec. 1, though they say widespread masking and vaccinations could mitigate some of the damage wrought by the delta variant.
Researchers behind the University of Washington forecasting model, which was often used during the Trump administration to predict the course of the outbreak through much of spring 2020, predicted that the overall death toll due to the pandemic could exceed 727,000 in the next three months.
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That jump in fatalities could be avoided, however, if people get vaccinated and wear masks wherever possible.
“We can save 50,000 lives simply by wearing masks. That’s how important behaviors are,” Ali Mokdad, a professor of health metrics sciences at the University of Washington, told Bloomberg.
After a few straight weeks of relatively low daily case counts and declining hospitalizations starting in mid-May, state and local governments are back on the defensive as the delta variant threatens to overwhelm healthcare systems with healthier, younger patients. States such as New York, Oregon, New Jersey, and California have reinstated mask orders for certain public settings in addition to mandates for certain sectors of the population to get vaccinated as a condition of employment in the state. Oregon Gov. Kate Brown, for example, has restored a mask mandate for outdoor public spaces and will not allow exceptions for people who have been vaccinated.
”There are going to be times where the virus has the upper hand, and that’s what happened with delta, and there may be times when we get better control,” said Keri Althoff, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. “As we see this happen, we have a whole toolbox, and some days, we’re going to have to reach out and grab a mask.”
Meanwhile, several states contending with the worst phase of the pandemic, such as Florida and Texas, have attempted to impede counties and municipalities from instituting the masking and vaccination requirements they believe would benefit their residents. Many school districts in those states have since gone against their governors’ rules against mandating masks and shots, arguing that the state is exceeding its authority.
“If we behave, we can contain this virus. If we don’t behave, this virus is waiting for us,” Mokdad said. “It’s going to find the weak among us.”
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The full approval of Pfizer-BioNTech’s coronavirus vaccine on Monday is expected to boost uptake in the coming weeks. About 30% of unvaccinated people surveyed in June said they would be more likely to get the vaccine if it were approved by the Food and Drug Administration.
