PAINESVILLE, Ohio — J.D. Vance said he expects Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) will be easily reelected the No. 1-ranking Senate Republican in the next Congress, signaling he would be comfortable with that development if he advances to Congress in November.
Vance, the Republican nominee against Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) in the race for an open Ohio Senate seat, is not taking a position on the matter. He is backed by former President Donald Trump and enjoys enthusiastic support from the GOP’s populist wing. Both oppose McConnell staying on as minority leader, or majority leader, depending on the outcome of the midterm elections.
But in an interview with the Washington Examiner on Thursday during a campaign swing through northern Ohio, Vance did not express disappointment about the likelihood of the Senate minority leader being reupped by his GOP colleagues to serve as the chamber’s top Republican for another two years. Neither did Vance voice concerns about McConnell’s leadership of the Republican conference generally.
“I haven’t committed because I don’t like the hypothetical,” Vance, 38, said. “But look, at the end of the day, I think McConnell’s going to be the majority leader because I think Republicans are going to take the Senate back, and he’s the only person who’s going to run.”
McConnell, 80, has had an iron grip on Republican leadership in the Senate since winning the top spot following the 2006 elections and assuming power in January 2007. Beginning with that leadership election, which, like all GOP conference leadership elections, is held behind closed doors, McConnell has faced no opponents and won by acclamation eight times consecutively. Sometime next year, McConnell would become the longest-serving Senate leader in history, eclipsing Montana Democrat Mike Mansfield.
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But McConnell is deeply unpopular with grassroots conservatives and the broader electorate. Especially with Trump agitating against him, some Republican Senate candidates have responded by declaring they would oppose him for another term as leader. Among them are Blake Masters, the GOP nominee in Arizona endorsed by Trump, and Don Bolduc, the party standard-bearer in New Hampshire, who was not endorsed by the former president.
Vance, meanwhile, has struggled to outpace Ryan since winning the Republican Senate nomination in May, a victory fueled by political support from Trump and financial backing from GOP megadonor Peter Thiel — despite a favorable political atmosphere and Ohio’s status as a quasi-red state. Republicans are confident Vance will finish on top, but the stubborn competitiveness of the race prompted Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with McConnell, to pour in $28 million.
Vance led Ryan in three of the last four public opinion polls, but his advantage in the averages — 0.7 percentage points — amounts to a virtual tie. Compare that to Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine, who leads his Democratic challenger, Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley, 54.3% to 35%, a yawning margin of 19.3 points. But in a positive sign for Vance, he entered October with a $3.3 million war chest, more than double Ryan’s $1.5 million.
“We obviously have a very tough election here in Ohio,” Vance conceded to a gathering of grassroots Republicans at Lake County GOP headquarters in Painesville, a community of about 20,000 people roughly 30 miles northeast of Cleveland.
Vance is a former venture capitalist and the bestselling author of Hillbilly Elegy, his memoir that was made into a movie by Netflix.
He has inspired conservative populists with his vocal criticism of large corporations, denunciations of cultural liberalism, and a more restrained approach to foreign policy that questions U.S. leadership abroad. For instance, Vance is skeptical of maintaining the sort of robust military aid to Ukraine favored by President Joe Biden and Republican defense hawks to help Kyiv resist an invasion by Russia that began in February.
Vance emphasized he does not oppose American assistance for Ukraine, and he conceded any detente with Russia that allows Moscow to hold territorial gains made as a result of the invasion could empower China, of which Vance is greatly concerned. But Vance said his greater worry is that the United States could contribute to a dangerous escalation of tensions between Russia and the West by continuing to supply Kyiv with offensive weaponry.
“My instinct here is that we spend way too much money on Ukraine right now,” Vance said. “Is it really in our best interest to have a worldwide energy crisis, a worldwide food crisis, God forbid, a potential nuclear conflict? I really, really worry that we’re not playing a positive role here and that we should be pushing towards deescalation.”
Vance’s position on abortion is more conventionally Republican — he opposes it. But as Republicans in the wake of the Supreme Court ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization grapple with abortion policy — some want the issue legislated in the states, others in Washington — Vance said that he is a fan of both.
Vance said he expects most abortion regulations to be made in state capitals, reflecting the will of voters in various parts of the country. But he believes federal legislation is necessary to create a “minimum national standard” of “reasonable” restrictions to account for states committed to keeping the procedure legal up until birth, even in instances in which the mother’s health is not at risk or where the pregnancy did not result from rape or incest.
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To that end, Vance supports a proposal from Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) to outlaw most abortions at 15 weeks of pregnancy.
“It’s reasonable to have a minimum national standard while letting 99% of abortion policy be made by the states,” Vance said. “That’s how I think about the abortion issue. I’ve supported the Graham bill. I think that it sets a minimum standard while still letting a lot of the policymaking happen at the state level.”
