An independently commissioned poll of three citywide District Democratic primary races found a sizable number of voters undecided, indicating little interest in wide-open contests as the summer campaign season kicks into gear.
The Mellman Group, a District-based research firm, conducted the survey in May of 400 registered D.C. Democrats on behalf of the Foggy Bottom Association, which is currently fighting George Washington University’s expansion plans.
The poll, with a 4.9 percent margin of error, covered the races for mayor, council chairman and one at-large seat, in addition to university development issues.
“Our poll finds lots of potential twists and turns in key D.C. primary races, along with a deep and widely held concern about overdevelopment and the undue influence of developers,” the Mellman Group wrote in a memo accompanying the survey.
In the mayor’s race, the two front-runners carried the day, as Ward 4 Council Member Adrian Fenty received 34 percent to Council Chairman Linda Cropp’s 28 percent. Michael Brown and Vincent Orange each received 4 percent, and Marie Johns picked up 2 percent. Twenty-eight percent of respondents were undecided.
In the chairman contest, Ward 3 Council Member Kathy Patterson holds a slight lead over Ward 7 Council Member Vincent Gray, 30 percent to 27 percent, with44 percent undecided.
In the at-large race, incumbent Phil Mendelson leads attorney A. Scott Bolden 30 percent to 17 percent. But with 53 percent undecided, it appears Bolden “has not made substantial inroads” and “Mendelson is an electorally weak incumbent,” according to Mellman.
On development, 64 percent said community members have little influence with regard to real estate decisions. And 88 percent said community members should have input in a university’s decisions on such issues as campus size, student population and housing requirements.
“GW is a developer masquerading as a university, and that has enormous consequences for District residents in terms of lost tax revenue and overburdening of infrastructure and services,” said Joy Howell, president of the Foggy Bottom Association. “We need to educate people on what GW does and how it impacts other neighborhoods in the city.”
The university argues that the association comprises a small group of people who dislike whatever the university does.
More survey details
» Kathy Patterson is overwhelmingly supported by white voters and Gray has a significant lead among blacks in the chairman’s contest.
» In the mayor’s race, Adrian Fenty’s strongest support comes from voters under 50, while older voters lean toward Linda Cropp.
» Fear of overdevelopment is shared by both renters and homeowners.
