Tennessee Gov. Bill Haslam is considering a bid for the U.S. Senate in 2020, a move that could freeze out other Republican candidates who are looking to replace retiring Sen. Lamar Alexander.
Republican sources confirmed on Monday that Haslam is interested in federal office, and that he would likely spend some time after he leaves the governor’s mansion in January to think it over. Other top names mentioned as potential Alexander successors include William Hagerty, U.S. ambassador to Japan, and outgoing Rep. Diane Black, who lost her bid for the GOP nomination for governor this year. But all of them are likely to wait on Haslam’s decision.
“Haslam, who earlier had ruled out a Senate race, will consider one now. He’s going to work till very end on Jan. 18 and then he and his wife are going to take time off and not do anything — except now think about this,” a Tennessee GOP insider told the Washington Examiner. “I think there’s a chance that he will think favorably of it.”
One Tennessee Republican source noted that Haslam’s favorability rating in the state is in the mid-to-high 60s, and said, “only a fool would run against him.”
Alexander, 78, announced Monday that he would not seek re-election in 2020 and retire upon the conclusion of his third term. He decided against a run in August after initially taking steps toward a campaign. On Sunday, he telephoned President Trump to inform him of that decision.
Alexander is a former governor and secretary of education, and his departure be a seismic turning point in GOP politics in Tennessee.
For decades, Tennessee Republicans were known for nominating conservative pragmatists. But the party today is much more reflective of the culturally provocative politics of President Trump, and the spirited primary for the nomination to replace Alexander could ensue sometime next year.
If Haslam doesn’t run, Republicans say the White House might get behind Hagerty, although that push could come over the objections of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who is pleased with the ambassador’s work in Asia.
“These are very large shoes to fill — Lamar has been the gold standard in Tennessee politics for a generation,” said John Ryder, a veteran Republican attorney from Memphis. “We had an earthquake of 4.4 magnitude in East Tennessee last week. This is much bigger.“
At the moment, the main goal among Republicans is to avoid a traumatic primary season that has blown up Senate contests for them in prior years, though they have been largely successful in avoiding those recently. To top Republicans, Haslam and Hagerty would do the trick and avoid a war with conservatives.
The Club for Growth, a group closely aligned with the Freedom Caucus and past GOP primary challengers, made a preemptive strike Monday by calling for Congressman-elect Mark Green to launch a run for Alexander’s seat. Green will take senator-elect Marsha Blackburn’s seat in the House next month.
A Haslam run, however, would dim that prospect and reduce the chances of someone like Green getting through the primary.
“If Haslam’s in this race, there’s no chance any serious Democrat runs,” said one GOP strategist involved in Senate contests. “But if there’s a chance that Mark Green wins the primary, I think they could get a pretty good recruit. You don’t have to be much other than reasonable.”
The Tennessee GOP source added that Green is not viewed by many within the party as ready for prime time and is prone to making “rookie mistakes.” Most recently, Green was chastised by state leaders for saying that vaccinations cause autism.
Alexander’s exit will come only two years after Sen. Bob Corker’s departure from the upper chamber. The two Tennessee Republicans are both considered heavy hitters in GOP politics, as both have served atop key committees and carry a considerable amount of clout, something that has run deep in Tennessee politics. The two men took over for the late Sen. Fred Thompson and former Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, respectively. Republicans believe Haslam would carry on that tradition.
[Related: Bob Corker says ‘no’ 14 times to running for Lamar Alexander’s Senate seat]
“Haslam seems like a no-brainer. He checks every single one of the boxes,” the strategist said.
Tennessee Republicans also do not see any political outsiders making a run if the likes of Haslam and Hagerty decide against it. Peyton Manning, the former NFL quarterback who has been rumored for years about a possible run given his interest in politics, is still viewed as longshot to launch a bid. Although Manning played football at the University of Tennessee and is a state hero, he resides in Indiana.
“I don’t think Peyton would run,” the Tennessee GOP source said. “I don’t think he would want to be a senator. I don’t see that happening.”
As for a potential general election challenger, the bench is thin for Democrats aside from former Gov. Phil Bredesen, who lost to Blackburn by 9 points.
“They’re an endangered species in Tennessee,” the Tennessee GOP source said. There’s just nothing credible about a Democrat running in 2020 as of right now.”
