Barack Obama’s and John McCain’s campaigns are both pushing rosy scenarios for Tuesday’s vote. But only one can be right.
Obama’s strategists believe their candidate continues to enjoy not just a sturdy lead in national popular opinion — at least 5 points in most polls — but, more importantly, advantages in states George Bush won handily, such as Colorado and Virginia. Democratic strategists believe that whatever surprises Election Day may hold won’t be sufficient to knock Obama off his path to victory.
McCain’s team, meanwhile, argues the race has been tightening as undecided voters uncomfortable with Obama’s amount of experience are moving toward McCain in the final days of the campaign. They see a nail-biter in the making with states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania narrowly deciding the outcome.
Team Obama says the Republicans are just whistling past the graveyard.
“Our No. 1 strategic goal was to have a big playing field,” Obama campaign manager David Plouffe told host Chris Wallace on “Fox News Sunday.” “We did not want to wake up on the morning of November 4th waiting for one state. We wanted a lot of different ways to win this election.”
Democrats argue that with McCain on the defensive in traditional red states including North Carolina, Indiana, Virginia and Colorado, whatever gains the Republican might make in the final hours won’t be enough. Plouffe said Obama’s funding and organizational advantages allowed him to lay the groundwork in Republican state early.
“And so here we find ourselves two days out from the election with a lot of different ways to get to 270 electoral votes,” Plouffe said. “We do not have to pull an inside straight. And so strategically, that was our most important goal.”
Republicans acknowledge that they are the ones who are waiting on the draw Tuesday, but McCain’s team has outlined how it believes they can still fill out its hand.
McCain pollster Bill McInturff released a memo last week saying the race was “too close to call” based on strong support for McCain from rural voters, non-college-educated men, “Wal-Mart women,” “soft Democrats” and an estimated 8 percent of voters who are undecided, but in McInturff’s calculation trend Republican.
McCain’s stepped-up rhetoric labeling Obama as “Barack the Redistributor” and other jabs at the Democrat’s fiscal policies are also giving the Republican ticket significant lift, according to the pollster.
Republicans hold up Pennsylvania as the key example of how they see the race turning. While Obama had dominated polls in the Keystone State for months, McCain’s relentless pursuit of Pennsylvania’s 21 electoral votes seemed to be paying dividends last week when polls that had shown Obama leading by 12 or 13 points suddenly showed a 4-point race.
“All signs say we are headed to an election that may easily be too close to call,” McInturff wrote.
Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg issued a tart rejoinder to McInturff’s memo, arguing that Obama would maintain his lead into the final tallies.
“The McCain campaign is like a football team that has just gained 5 yards but still faces 4th and long, deep in its own territory,” Greenberg wrote.
