FRED BARNES’S FINE piece in the new issue of THE WEEKLY STANDARD (“The Two-Man Race“) is particularly useful for its reminder that a helpful way to think about a presidential election–or any election–is to consider the “scenario” each candidate has for winning. When I was in politics, we used to call this “the theory of the campaign.” A political strategist has to have such a theory (and some backup theories). It allows him to makes decisions about resources, to figure out which rivals are a threat and which aren’t (or when and where they’re a threat), to focus on key inflection points, and ultimately to figure out what discrete events have to be made to happen to create a path to victory.
It’s clear Giuliani and Romney have credible paths to victory, ones that Fred lays out. But so, I think, do McCain, Huckabee, and especially Thompson. As Fred emphasizes, the primaries are a dynamic process. And dynamism, I suspect, trumps money. Or, to put it another way: An early caucus or primary victory, either moral or outright, is worth more free publicity than money can buy. And any of the five could win an early caucus or primary.
