Reince Priebus joked soon after becoming chairman of the Republican National Committee in January 2011, that his first and last name could be abbreviated to “R.N.C. B.S.”
But “BS” is last thing most Republicans will associate with him and his leadership after midterm elections in which the party inflicted historic losses on Democrats, in no small part because of his newly overhauled voter turnout program.
The performance of Republican candidates, and that of the RNC’s field and data operations, contrasted starkly to their ineptitude in 2012, when the GOP was shattered by President Obama’s re-election machine.
“Reince had to deal with enormous disappointment after ’12. Clearly the presidential election was one that we could have won, and we didn’t,” said former Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, who was elected RNC chairman in 1993, a year that was another low-point for the party. “I know exactly what he had to deal with. People had to get confidence, they had to believe — not only that we had a good plan and good candidates, but that we’d execute.”
It’s hard to overstate how deep a funk the Republicans were in were after Obama’s re-election.
Not only did they fail to unseat a president with middling job approval ratings at a time of economic malaise, but Democrats picked up House seats and added to their Senate majority with wins in a handful of states that GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney won handily. Obama’s dominance across the demographic spectrum, and success in harnessing data to expand the electorate, suggested more painful defeats ahead for the Republicans.
Priebus ordered the RNC to conduct an “autopsy” to assess the damage and plot a path back to competitiveness.
The report, independently conducted by a group of veteran party operatives and dubbed the “Growth and Opportunity Project,” drew several conclusions. But chief among them was that the Republican Party needed to build modern get-out-the-vote and data analytics programs. The report also recommended, essentially, that the GOP establish a permanent, presidential-level campaign operation, unprecedented for a national party committee.
Priebus pulled the trigger. But it wasn’t that simple. The committee had traditionally hoarded cash for most of each two-year election cycle, only to spring into action four months before Election Day with television ads, resource transfers to affiliates and a half-hearted GOTV operation, that, in presidential years, existed to supplement the campaign of the party’s White House nominee. This is how the RNC functioned during Priebus’ first term as chairman.
Building an in-house Obama-level program that coordinated data analytics and field work on a permanent basis required Priebus to completely reorganize the structure of the committee — essentially turning it into part-tech startup, part-presidential campaign operation. It also required a large and immediate investment in personnel and technology that would require instant funding.
Priebus had proven an impressive fundraiser, having retired a $22 million RNC debt during his first term while raising tens of millions of dollars more. But Republican donors were in no mood to give after the 2012 elections, saying that the party had misspent their contributions and gave broken promises that victory was at hand. Many Republican operatives, meanwhile, were second-guessing Priebus’ strategy. He ultimately sold RNC donors on his plan, at least enough to move forward.
There were some false starts and missteps, but the committee managed to build a program that by the day after Tuesday’s elections, was winning begrudging respect from Democrats, who had been the biggest skeptics of the RNC operation. The committee this cycle invested more than $105 million on the program, which supports a staff of about 50 in offices in Washington and Silicon Valley, Calif.
“Reince did a great job pulling together a strong team and making the investment necessary to tackle the technology gap,” said Saul Anuzis, the former chairman of the Michigan Republican Party who was defeated by Priebus in the 2011 race for RNC chairman.
Republicans won control of the Senate on Tuesday, flipping seven Democrat-held Senate seats with a chance to pick up two more after Alaska’s race is called and Louisiana has its December runoff. The GOP padded its House majority with another 12 seats, won mostly in blue and swing districts, and won three governor’s mansions in liberal strongholds Maryland, Massachusetts and Illinois.
During a breakfast with reporters on Friday, sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor, Priebus said the RNC’s voter turnout played a key part in the victories. He said the committee’s programs helped the GOP match Democratic field and data efforts to expand the electorate and encourage low propensity midterm voters to show up on Election Day, ensuring that the party maintained its traditional edge in non-presidential years.
But Priebus acknowledged that winning in 2016 will be more difficult than it was this year. The Democrats in recent years have been able to count on more guaranteed votes in the Electoral College, and benefited from a turnout that includes more voting blocs that are statistically more likely to vote for Democrats. Priebus said the RNC’s turnout program would need to grow and would require refining and improvement, to match what the Democratic nominee, possibly Hillary Clinton, was likely to throw at them.
Priebus said he is leaning toward sticking around for a third term as RNC chairman to finish what he still describes as a four-year project, to build a data and field operation capable of winning the White House. He is unlikely to face a serious challenger for a third term if he seeks it, and another term also would enable Priebus to oversee changes to the GOP presidential primary process that he has spearheaded since 2012.
“By reorganizing our nomination process, and taking it from a six-month, slice-and-dice festival, down to about 60 days — is smart,” Priebus said. “And, I think that’s what you’re going to see. It’s going to be a faster nomination process and like I said before, we’re not going have a 23-debate circus, we’re going to have some control.”
