Hillary Clinton’s strong performance in some recent Arizona polls is making some Republicans nervous.
The presumptive Democratic nominee leads Donald Trump in the RealClearPolitics average of recent polling, 42 percent to 40 percent. Indeed, Clinton led Trump in two of the last four public polls of Arizona, and tied in a third.
Clinton’s lead is statistically insignificant — and it’s early.
But her advantage is notable nonetheless considering that, with the exception of 1996, when Bill Clinton narrowly won Arizona in a three-way contest, the state has voted Republican for president in every election since 1952.
And yet, both Democrats and Republicans are treating the state cautiously. A poll of Arizona conducted in mid-June by the Republican firm, The Tarrance Group, showed Trump leading Clinton by 6 to 7 percentage points.
A portion of the survey of 400 registered voters, obtained by the Washington Examiner, was conducted June 11-13, and found Trump ahead of Clinton 32 percent to 26 percent with voters committed to either candidate.
Similarly, Trump led 42 percent to 35 percent among voters “definitely or probably” committed to either him or Clinton, and he led 45 percent to 38 percent when “leaners” were included.
“I don’t put a lot of stock in polling at this point. The polling is likely to be all over the place until mid-Sept. Then it will stabilize,” said Sean Noble, a Republican operative in Arizona.
“At the end of the day, the vast majority of GOP voters will cast their ballot for Trump and he’ll get a majority of the independents and a decent share of Democrats,” Noble added. “I don’t see how Clinton overcomes those numbers.”
Other Republicans are worried.
In 2012, Republican Mitt Romney defeated President Obama in Arizona 53.7 percent to 44.6 percent. Romney led in virtually every poll taken in the state, and outperformed the final RealClearPolitics average by 1.6 percentage points.
That’s why early signs of life for Clinton and Trump’s low topline number relative to Romney — combined with Trump’s unusually low favorable ratings with Hispanics (even for a Republican) — are causing some GOP operatives in Arizona to register concern.
“Right now I’d say it’s not in play but it could go that way if people wake up; seems like his numbers keep eroding,” said a Republican strategist in Arizona who requested anonymity in order to speak candidly. “The unanswered question would be could they have a huge Latino turnout?”
Nationally, Trump is in trouble with non-white voters.
In the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll, Clinton led Trump 77 percent to 15 percent with this cohort. In a May poll by Fox News Latino, Clinton led Trump among Hispanic voters 62 percent to 23 percent.
That was before Trump’s racially charged attack on a federal judge, whom he accused of being unable to preside over a lawsuit involving one of his companies because of his Mexican heritage.
Hispanics comprise 22 percent of “eligible voters” in Arizona, according to a report issued in January by the Pew Research Center.
The question is whether they’ll activate in available numbers, either through the voter turnout efforts of the Clinton campaign or as a reaction to Trump.
Noble is doubtful, and if history is any guide, he’s right.
“There aren’t enough Latino voters to move the needle,” Noble said. “And, for every new Latino vote for Hillary, there will be a working-class Democrat voting for Trump.”
Noble also predicted that Sen. John McCain would cruise to victory in his Aug. 30 primary, and be re-elected easily. Democrats might take issue with the latter part of his McCain forecast.
So far, neither Clinton nor her allies are investing in Arizona.
That suggests Democrats are content with the press from favorable polls but haven’t yet determined that there is path to victory.
