A new piece in TIME magazine has but one thesis, although it is as irritating to me as the original 95. You can read it here. The hopelessly uninformed story, by Ana Marie Cox of Wonkette/DC sex gossip fame, argues that McCain is a fool to campaign in Iowa. Using selective poll numbers and the tired “observers are wondering” device, Cox argues that McCain should focus his campaign purely on New Hampshire and avoid Iowa. The problem with that, as every serious political journalist and campaign manager knows, is that one of the biggest drivers in New Hampshire is what happens the week before in Iowa. With the New Hampshire primary highly likely to occur just five days after the Iowa caucus, Iowa’s “bounce” effect on New Hampshire is certain to be stronger this year than ever before. You have to truly know very little about presidential primary politics – which seems these days to be a first rate media credential – to think a candidate can prosper by building a sand castle in New Hampshire and then ignoring the inevitable 50-foot tidal wave days later that brings three big surfers from Iowa. McCain, Giuliani, and Thompson all know this and are fighting for that vital third place “ticket” out of Iowa and into New Hampshire. Their race is still wide open, with an average of the five latest Iowa polls showing these three contenders for third place within six points of each other, which is just outside the margin or error. On caucus night, the difference between third and sixth place could be as little as 6,000 votes. Ironically, the most legitimate criticism of the McCain strategy is the opposite of Ms. Cox’s; McCain is not committing enough resources to Iowa. He needs good paid TV on the air pronto, because in reality the Iowa caucus is driven as much by message and TV ads as organization. To win New Hampshire, McCain needs TV ads in Iowa.
