The Canadian general overseeing the coalition training of Iraqi forces says they are ready to liberate the Mosul from the grip of the Islamic State and that “the fall of Mosul is inevitable.”
“We’ve given them everything they need to shoot, maneuver and communicate, which is all you need to defeat an enemy,” Brig. Gen. Dave Anderson, director of training for Operation Inherent Resolve, said at a Pentagon briefing Wednesday.
“It is the beginning of the end. And they know that,” said Anderson, referring to the estimated 3,500 to 5,000 ISIS fighters holed up in Mosul who have spent months digging in and preparing defenses. “We’ve already seen signs of leaders abandoning their posts in Mosul, because they know what’s coming. They know that Mosul is going to fall.”
Anderson said about 45,000 Iraqi security forces have been trained, of which as many as 20,000 could be part of the Mosul assault, which is expected to begin soon.
That gives the attacking Iraqi forces a substantial numerical advantage.
“The only thing better than winning seven-nothing is winning 100 to nothing,” Anderson said. “There’s no point in leaving anything to chance here. Overwhelming odds always helps. Nobody’s looking for a close game or a tie in war.”
While it’s possible the Islamic State forces will quickly fold, the Iraqi battle plan anticipates a long and deadly fight to secure Iraq’s second largest city.
Regardless, Anderson said the Iraqi troops are up to the task. “When you’re playing a team sport, you don’t have to be better than the guy next to you. You just gotta be better than the guy you’re facing,” adding “And I have every confidence that the Iraqi security forces are better than [ISIS].”
The U.S.-led coalition also has helped Iraq develop a detailed plan to govern Mosul and restore services after Islamic State forces have been defeated.
It involves some 30,000 to 45,000 “hold forces,” including 8,000 local police who will serve as the face of security for Iraq, backed up by roughly 12,000 troops from local tribes.
“The important thing is that they’re local,” Anderson said. “That is the key particularly for Mosul. … It needs to be people from the area and of the area.”
Other Iraq forces, which are not from the Mosul area, will remain outside the city to provide perimeter security.
Anderson echoed the widely held view that the fall of Mosul will herald the beginning of the end of the Islamic State in Iraq.
“I think it leads to the inevitable end of ISIL in its current configuration,” Anderson said, while noting the group will still have its stronghold in Raqqa, Syria.
