The combination of a Republican White House and Congress opens up a world of possibilities for the GOP to advance priorities that were stalled for the last eight years under Obama.
But it doesn’t mean all Republicans think alike. Some are likely to oppose plans for a huge infrastructure spending bill, something President-elect Trump proposed during the campaign.
And being surrounded by Republicans and an increasingly unhappy group of Democrats may also have implications for the Democratic leadership structure.
Here are six things to watch when the 115th Congress convenes:
Congress will repeal Obamacare
Republicans have been talking about it for six years and now they will have the legislative power to repeal the healthcare law. They’ll do it in January with the help of a budgetary trick in the Senate known as reconciliation, which will let the GOP get it through the Senate with just a simple majority, instead of the 60 votes needed for passage.
That will let the new Republican president sign it into law.
Replacing the law will be far more complicated
A replacement proposal will likely take the form of smaller bills — Republicans are eager to avoid taking up one big measure after mocking Obamacare’s 2,700 pages that few lawmakers read before voting on it.
But to pass any healthcare legislation, Republicans will need significant agreement among party lawmakers in the House and at least eight Democrats in the Senate, where the party is in no mood to hand the GOP a healthcare victory.
“If they repeal without a replacement, they will own it,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., pledged this month. “Democrats will not then step up to the plate and come up with a half-baked solution that we will partially own. It’s all theirs.”
Look for a long phase-out for Obamacare — up to three years according to some GOP Senate aides, and a struggle to pass a replacement.
Solid chance for tax reform
Republicans may find more cooperation with Democrats on comprehensive tax reform, which hasn’t happened since the Reagan administration.
But they don’t need Democratic buy-in. Like the plan to repeal Obamacare, Republicans again plan to use a budget reconciliation bill to pass tax reform with 51 votes in the Senate.
Still, Schumer said he’s interested in working with Trump on reforming the tax code, particularly if it involves getting rid of tax breaks like the carried interest loophole that benefits venture capitalists and hedge funds.
In the House, tax reform is the top priority for House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., after repealing Obamacare. Ryan, the former Ways and Means Committee chairman, has been eyeing tax reform for years and is particularly eager to lower the corporate tax rate to spur economic growth. He knows the 115th Congress may be the best chance to get it done.
Republicans balk at infrastructure plan
Trump raised GOP eyebrows when he pitched a massive infrastructure bill, which is likely to bust the budget and raise the deficit unless there are cuts elsewhere in the budget or tax increases. Trump’s plan claims to pay for itself by boosting economic growth.
The preliminary price tag for the plan is a whopping $1 trillion, causing GOP leaders to fear a repeat of the Obama stimulus bill from 2009 that none of them supported.
Democrats love Trump’s infrastructure plan, which is another bad sign for the GOP. “Sounded good to me,” Schumer told ABC news.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., was less enthusiastic when asked about the plan earlier this month. “I think the details are really important, but I hope what we clearly avoid — and I’m confident that we will — is a trillion dollar stimulus that will take you back to 2009,” McConnell said.
A tamer House Freedom Caucus
The HFC, a faction of conservatives who have for years battled the GOP leadership, will work more cooperatively in the 115th Congress, in part because all Republican lawmakers are eager to produce GOP legislation that will actually get signed by a Republican president.
Incoming HFC Chairman Mark Meadows, R-N.C., has pledged to bridge the gap between his band of conservatives and GOP leaders, and suggested there will be fewer internal GOP battles and more unified effort to get legislation to Trump’s desk.
“There will be perhaps a heightened sensitivity to the fact that many of our requests will be received with a lot more receptivity at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue than ever before,” Meadows told the Washington Examiner.
Pelosi’s retirement?
Pelosi will be 78 at the conclusion of the 115th Congress. She’ll be older than most of her modern-day predecessors, including Tip O’Neill, who retired at age 75. While age is certainly no detriment to lawmakers on Capitol Hill (many serve into their 80s), Pelosi is already fending off opposition to her leadership after two losing cycles in the House, and a growing desire among the rank-and-file for a younger leadership team.
More than 60 House Democrats voted against her last month when she ran for Democratic leader. Pelosi is betting on a midterm bounce-back for Democrats, which is certainly possible. But if the party doesn’t pick up a significant number of seats in November 2018, she could step down.
