In yesterday’s Washington Post article by Dan Balz and Peter Slevin, Obama’s chief strategist David Axlerod argued McCain’s post-convention bounce in the national polls was driven by the Republican ticket’s surge in red states.
Political Scientist Charles Franklin was skeptical. He tested Axlerod’s conjecture by examining the most recent state level polling and found McCain’s recent gains extend well beyond the red states. Franklin writes:
Clearly, despite Axlerod’s argument and wishful thinking, the McCain/Palin gains extend beyond traditional GOP bastions. And based on the closeness of the current battleground states, a 4 point shift–if maintained–could tilt the map in enough places for McCain to garner the 270 electoral votes needed to win. See Franklin’s charts and read his entire analysis here.
