Prosecutors are not that interested in morality or ethics or general misbehavior. They ask themselves and their assistant prosecutors these questions: What laws have been broken? What are the chances we can get a conviction? Before they even present evidence to a grand jury, with the intention of indicting an individual, they assess their risks: Will the grand jury agree to vote for indictment? Will a jury convict? Will the judge give a sentence worth the trouble of bringing the case in the first place?
U.S. Attorney Ronald Machen is weighing these risks and rewards right now when it comes to the three cases that concern our D.C. politicians. Machen has said he’s investigating cases that involve Mayor Vincent Gray, City Council Chairman Kwame Brown, and Ward 5 Council Member Harry Thomas Jr.
Pressure is mounting on Machen to pull the trigger, so to speak. Will he or won’t be able to bring charges against any of the three?
During an appearance on the Kojo Nnamdi radio show Friday, Machen said he understood the need to come to some conclusion. He said he had 25 attorneys working in his public corruption unit. Which begs the question: Why are these three politicians still twisting in the wind? It’s time to get some answers from Machen and his prosecutors.
Waiting for some action, we are left playing the odds. If the bookies in Las Vegas were laying odds on indictments, how would our three public officials come out? Let’s give it a whirl.
My guess is that Vince Gray skates. Sulaimon Brown has accused Gray and his campaign associates of paying him off to harass Adrian Fenty during the last mayoral campaign. The three were among the candidates running for mayor. It’s true that Gray’s aides gave Brown a job in his administration, but does that break any laws? Doubt it. Brown has testified before the city council that he was paid to go after Fenty, and he has the paper trail to prove it. But the trail seems flimsy, and Brown would make a terrible witness.
Odds are 3-1 against Gray — or his campaign aides — getting indicted.
Kwame Brown is under investigation for the accounting of funds from his 2008 campaign. An audit by the city’s campaign watchdog agency found $240,000 was funneled to a company run by Brown’s brother, Che. Unless Machen finds fraud or illegal money transfers, Brown and his family members won’t face charges. I guess the odds are even.
Harry Thomas Jr. faces the worst odds. Attorney General Irv Nathan already got Thomas to agree to repay $300,000 in public funds Nathan said Thomas diverted to groups he controlled and used for his personal needs. Nathan sent a detailed package to Machen. Nathan would not have sent it up unless he figured Thomas violated laws, and Machen could make a case. So — odds are 3-1 that Thomas could get indicted.
Whatever the odds or outcome, Machen needs to make a move so the city can get out of scandal mode.
Harry Jaffe’s column appears on Tuesday and Friday. He can be contacted at [email protected].
