President Trump might have inadvertently damaged Republican chances of flipping a Democratic House seat in Nevada when he cleared the field for Sen. Dean Heller in the GOP Senate primary.
Trump convinced Republican Danny Tarkanian to drop his challenge against Heller and run for the open, Las Vegas-area 3rd Congressional District. The development boosts Senate Republicans and the vulnerable Heller, who can now focus on a tough fall campaign in a purple Nevada without having to protect his right flank in the June primary.
But Tarkanian’s entrance into the 3rd District primary, with Trump’s explicit endorsement, is expected to sideline two Republican candidates viewed as stronger general election prospects with a better chance of beating the eventual Democratic nominee. Tarkanian is a mistake-prone politician with past ethical controversies who has lost five bids for public office.
“Obviously, Tark isn’t our favorite,” a Republican insider based in Washington said, on condition of anonymity in order to speak candidly. “Michelle Mortensen and Scott Hammond are both two good ones.”
Trump garnered 47.5 percent in the 3rd District in 2016, edging Democrat Hillary Clinton by 1 percentage point. But Tarkanian, the Republican nominee in the district that year, lost his race to now-Rep. Jacky Rosen, 47.2 percent to 46 percent. Rosen is a Democrat who is retiring after one term to run for Senate against Heller.
Tarkanian, 56, is a lawyer and the son of the late, legendary college basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian, who led the University of Nevada Las Vegas to a national championship in 1990. He has twice lost bids for the House and come up short in campaigns for state senate, the U.S. Senate; and Nevada secretary of state — often derailed by verbal gaffes and ethical issues.
Tarkanian’s performance against Heller was inconsistent, suggesting that not much has changed from past campaigns. Republican insiders are worried that he will undermine the party’s ability to recapture the 3rd District in a midterm election shaping up as a backlash against Trump. Both Hammond, a state senator, and Mortensen, an ex-television news reporter, give them better opportunities to prevail.
“Danny would have problems in a legitimate two-way primary but benefits from a crowded field. His floor is in the high 20s, and his ceiling is probably in the low 40s in a primary, which makes him the favorite in a crowded field,” a Republican operative in Nevada said. “Mortensen and Hammond are probably better general election candidates.”
With an advantage of 23 to 24 seats, depending on the final outcome of the special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th District, every race counts for the Republicans in their effort to hold the House majority.
But the party also is concerned about its slim, 51-49 majority in the Senate; freeing Heller from a primary challenge from the right, and enthusiastic backing for Heller from the president, could help Republicans shore up an endangered Senate seat.
Clinton defeated Trump in Nevada. But the Republican base in the state is loyal to the president, and the GOP has been gaining in voter registration over the preceding 16 months.
With Tarkanian eliminated, Heller can focus on appealing to a broad general election audience without having to defend his conservative credentials or deal with attacks from a primary challenger for his past scuffles with Trump.
“It would be great for the Republican Party of Nevada, and it’s unity if good guy Danny Tarkanian would run for Congress and Dean Heller, who is doing a really good job, could run for Senate unopposed!” Trump said in a Friday Twitter post.
Tarkanian was recruited to run against Heller by Steve Bannon, the nationalist firebrand who previously served as Trump’s chief strategist in the White House. Bannon envisioned Tarkanian as part of a stable of Republican candidates in Senate primaries that would oust incumbents and threaten Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.
But McConnell prevailed on Trump last fall to support incumbents, most of whom are strong supporters of his agenda in Congress in Senate primaries.
Then, Trump and Bannon had a falling out over comments Bannon made in a salacious book about the Trump White House. That left Republican challengers in Senate primaries, like Tarkanian, in a weakened position, although still nettlesome and potentially problematic.
Tarkanian agreed to Trump’s request that he shift to the 3rd District after lobbying by the White House and a personal appeal from the president.
“I am confident I would have won the U.S. Senate race and done a great job representing the people of Nevada in the Senate,” Tarkanian said in a statement. “But the president is adamant that a unified Republican ticket in Nevada is the best direction for the America First movement.”
Tarkanian was the second Republican this week to back out of challenging an incumbent in a primary.
In Mississippi, state Sen. Chris McDaniel dropped his campaign against Republican Sen. Roger Wicker, announcing he would run in the special election to select a permanent replacement to GOP Sen. Thad Cochran, who is set to resign at month’s end because of health issues.
