Yesterday, six of the top thirteen college football teams in the AP poll–all of them heretofore undefeated–lost to lower-ranked or unranked opponents. Upsets happen in sports. And upsets happen in politics. Especially in multi-candidate fields where almost all of the leading candidates have never run for the office in question before, and where none of the candidates right now is drawing majority support in the polls. Should Hillary Clinton, who leads Barack Obama by about 40 to 23 percent in national polls, be favored over her less experienced opponent? Sure. But could Obama upset Clinton? Easily. He will have as much money as she has for paid advertising–and the punditocracy undervalues the importance of such advertising, while overvaluing the value of pundit-consensus-judgments. Obama is about even with Clinton (along with Edwards) in Iowa. If Obama beats Clinton in Iowa, he’ll probably win New Hampshire–and then what? Probably an upset for the Democratic nomination that wouldn’t be as big an upset as the D.C. consensus now believes it would be. In politics, as in sports and in life, things change. Michigan suffered a stunning upset to Appalachian State, was trounced by Oregon–and has since won three games in a row. Momentum shifts. Fred Thompson was all the rage in the late spring-early summer. Then he delayed his entrance into the race, had an easygoing launch–and the pundits disapproved. But he’s second right now in most national polls, and is tied for second in Iowa and for first place in South Carolina. Not bad. Meanwhile, Giuliani is doing well nationally–but his supporters have to be worried by his apparent inability to move above what looks like a 30-percent ceiling. Romney probably has put together the best campaign of the GOP contenders, and he’s done very well so far in polling in Iowa and New Hampshire. But his supporters have to be worried that Romney’s early leads there may be beginning to dissipate as the other candidates begin focusing on, and advertising in, those states. On the other hand, Giuliani could stay in front, and Romney’s impressive early showing may turn out to be for real. Plus, McCain is still in the hunt. We don’t know. What we do know is that it would be amazing if things stayed just as they are. Politics is dynamic–especially the politics of a multi-candidate race with a new and compressed primary schedule. It’s unlikely that a present snapshot will capture a three-months-off future outcome. And this, too, we know: conventional wisdom is often wrong. Now, one could respond: So are strained attempts to contravene conventional wisdom! To which I’d have to say: Fair enough.
