Until he left the White House in July, Dan Bartlett had been on George W. Bush’s payroll pretty much his whole professional life, starting with the 1994 race for governor of Texas. So it’s not terribly surprising that he would find fault with the rivals to succeed his old boss. But if you read past the personal assessments in Peter Baker’s item yesterday, you’ll come to this highly questionable political analysis by the former presidential counselor: “Republicans, I believe, are terrified about losing the presidency after losing Congress,” Bartlett said. “I think this is going to be the season of the pragmatic Republican voter.” This is the heart of the matter when it comes to judging the health of the Republican coalition. My guess is pretty much the exact opposite. I don’t believe Republicans are terrified about losing the presidency – hence the mediocre fundraising results for the GOP as a whole. And I don’t see Republican voters in a pragmatic mood. When coalitions are healthy, voters look at their party’s slate of candidates with an eye to finding something about each one of them to like. When voters are unhappy with their party, they become picky, perfectionist, and prone to finding things to dislike in each of the candidates. It’s a bad sign for a coalition when powerbrokers and would-be powerbrokers are busy pronouncing one or another of the candidates “unacceptable.” Bartlett’s assessment is an apt description of the mood of the party when it went for George W. Bush eight years ago. Republican voters in 1999 and 2000 rallied around Bush because they were dead set on winning back the White House and were in a “pragmatic” mood. Bush was a candidate they warmed up to and became enthusiastic about because he looked like a winner. The more he looked like a winner, the more Republican voters discovered things to like about him. (The same process may now be taking place with Democratic voters and Hillary.) It’s a long year ahead, and things may change. But for now, it seems like wishful thinking to describe Republican voters as pragmatic and terrified of losing.
