Special counsel Robert Mueller is likely to continue efforts to “flip” former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort and his assistant Rick Gates, even after an indictment related to their lobbying work was announced Monday, experts say.
Manafort and Gates are seen as less likely to cooperate than former Trump campaign foreign policy adviser George Papadopoulos, who was arrested all the way back in July and has already pleaded guilty. Manafort and Gates have pleaded not guilty, suggesting they have no deal in place with the government.
Related: Read the indictment against Paul Manafort and Rick Gates
But some legal experts say the 12-count indictment may be a ploy to coerce cooperation from the pair accused of money laundering and other crimes related to their work for pro-Russia Ukrainian politicians.
“I would think, looking at who they were and the roles they played, that this is an effort to get additional pressure on them to cooperate,” said defense lawyer Robert LaRusso, who worked 28 years as an assistant U.S. attorney.
That would be especially true, he said, if prosecutors believe the men can share information useful to Mueller’s broad probe that began with investigating Trump’s links to Russia during the 2016 election.
LaRusso said defendants often decide to cooperate after an indictment. His firm, for example, represented a codefendant of GOP lobbyist Jack Abramoff, Adam Kidan, who in late 2005 took a plea deal agreeing to cooperate, four months after he was indicted and just weeks before Abramoff followed him and pleaded guilty too.
“It’s a common practice where people who are indicted together, one will flip,” LaRusso said. “Everyone’s concerned about that. And there are cases where you take down several of the players and get them to cooperate against continuing targets.”
LaRusso said he interprets the indictment against Manafort and Gates as meaning there was not prior cooperation. He added it’s also possible that a “flip” now will be initiated by defense attorneys.
“There are occasions where the person possesses information that prosecutors don’t even know about and therefore the defense attorney will make a proffer to the prosecution,” he said. “It could come from both avenues.”
Attorney Mark Geragos, a key player in many high-profile court cases, agrees that Manafort and Gates likely remain targets for Mueller to flip.
“It is not too late,” said Geragos, who represented Susan McDougal, who was jailed 18 months for contempt after refusing to cooperate with special prosecutor Ken Starr during the Whitewater investigation into the Clintons.
“In fact, this is exactly what happens post search warrant or arrest,” he said. “A defense lawyer talks with a prosecutor and either works something out like Papadopoulos or prosecutor indicts to put added pressure on and let the defendant know they are serious.”
An Oct. 5 guilty plea by Papadopolous, a previously obscure Trump campaign adviser, for lying to the FBI was unveiled alongside the Manafort-Gates charges. Papadopolous reportedly is cooperating with investigators regarding his efforts to contact Russians.
“This is when the high stakes poker game begins,” Geragos said of the Manafort-Gates charges. He said future signs of a deal may be found in nondescript court docket updates.
Abramoff, who emerged from prison rebranding himself a corruption fighter before returning to lobbying, meanwhile, said he’s not sure cooperation is likely from Manafort and Gates, as it’s unclear what evidence they exclusively hold.
“It’s hard to ascertain whether Manafort is cooperating with the prosecutors, though the raid on his home and the grand jury indictment indicates it’s likely he is not,” Abramoff said. “Whether that changes or not is anyone’s guess.”
Abramoff said he sees as more interesting the scandal’s possible effect on Democratic lobbyists such as Tony Podesta, the brother of Hillary Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta, whose firm, like Manafort’s, belatedly disclosed its Ukraine work.
“I think the more interesting question is why Tony Podesta was not indicted, at least not yet and whether, if he is, will he bring down the House of Clinton,” Abramoff said. “I would venture to say there were fewer actual criminals in the prison I inhabited than among the Clinton gang.”
Podesta left his firm, the Podesta Group, this week after reporting that he was a subject of Mueller’s probe. Abramoff said that may be “a sign that the end is coming.”
