Another Biden Tall Tale?

There have been multiple reports in recent weeks that the Obama administration is looking for a way to negotiate with members of the Taliban. Their thinking is that they may be able to peel off some of the less committed Taliban members, thereby weakening the organization as a whole. And now Vice President Biden is purporting to know that only “5 percent of the Taliban” are diehards, while most Taliban members — “70 percent” — are just opportunists who are in it “because of the money.” What is the source for Biden’s statistics? Did any reporter ask him? Biden seems to cite Holbrooke at first. Does this mean that these statistics came from him? If the statistics do come from Holbrooke, then how does he know these statistics are true? Or, is Biden just making up these numbers? The statistics Biden cites seem, on their face, to be wholly out of line with the entire history of how the Taliban evolved. As Ahmed Rashid notes in his book Descent Into Chaos, Pakistan’s intelligence service (the ISI) conspired with Mullah Omar and other Taliban leaders to ferret out any Taliban leaders who were not entirely committed to the cause both before and after 9/11. There may be a district commander here or there who could be wooed by money. But let’s not forget the fact that the CIA flooded Afghanistan with tens of millions of dollars after 9/11 in an attempt to buy off any would-be Taliban traitors. That effort had only limited success amongst some tribal leaders, but had little impact on the Taliban. It would be interesting to learn which Taliban leaders Biden, Holbrooke, or any other Obama administration official count among the “70 percent” cited by Biden.