Hamas’s rocket capability has been depleted and damaged by the group’s 11-day duel with Israeli forces, but experts say the militants likely still possess a substantial arsenal.
“We’re not trying to portray a false situation here,” an Israeli security official told the Washington Examiner after Hamas is believed to have sent more than 4,000 munitions into Israeli territory. “The achievement isn’t as big as to say that we’ve annihilated or denied Hamas’s rocket capability. Not the case, unfortunately.”
That’s a disappointment for many Israeli officials and leaders, one that is fueling criticism of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from across the political spectrum. In parallel, Hamas and its patrons in Iran is declaring victory in the latest contest, but the exact ramifications of the fighting remain to be seen as both sides take stock.
“The terrorist group’s rocket-making infrastructure is weakened but still exists, and the organization vows to continue to fight on,” the Foundation for Defense of Democracies Senior Vice President Jonathan Schanzer said. “The thing is that for Hamas, victory means surviving, and for Israel, victory means buying enough years of quiet. And I think both probably achieved their objectives.”
HAMAS: ISRAEL ‘WILL HAVE TO SUBMIT’
Israeli officials have said they calculated Hamas had up to 15,000 rockets before the violence started, firing as many as 4,300. A so-far unknown number were believed destroyed by Israeli airstrikes.
Perhaps the heaviest Israeli blow fell last week, when the Israel Defense Forces signaled it was launching a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip. These reports spurred Hamas fighters to race to their battle stations in a labyrinth of tunnels beneath Gaza only to realize, too late, that they had been lured into the tunnels in advance of an air raid.
“The surprise strike on the ‘metro’ tunnel system was a big moment,” Schanzer said. “It was a gut punch to Hamas. I mean, they were not ready for it.”
That strike was just one episode in a more extensive campaign against a tunnel network that Israel regards as “the backbone” of Hamas’s martial power. Israeli security officials assess that the strikes destroyed “about 115-120 kilometers of that infrastructure,” a military setback that comes with a $60 million price tag for Hamas, if the Israeli estimate of $500,000 per kilometer of tunnel is any guide.
“When we embarked on this operation together, I defined its central objective as being to strike a serious blow against the terrorist organizations, to harm their capabilities and to restore quiet while entrenching deterrents, and that is exactly what we did,” Netanyahu said Friday after the ceasefire took hold. “Hamas cannot hide any longer, and this is an extraordinary achievement for the state of Israel.”
Other Israeli politicians are less than impressed. “The prime minister and the government had our backing. There were achievements, but this is not something that changes the balance of power,” said Sderot Mayor Alon Davidi said. “It seems like nobody wants to defeat Hamas.”
Davidi, whose town was targeted by rockets from Gaza, faulted Netanyahu’s team for “restricting itself by only using airstrikes and artillery,” rather than ground forces. Schanzer agreed that such tactics could only accomplish so much in the absence of a ground invasion.
“Even something like that would come at great risk for Israel, and there would be no guarantee that Israel wouldn’t be mired in a long, knockdown, drag-out ground war that would probably redound to Hamas’s benefit,” he said.
Netanyahu cited the risk of “stratospheric” civilian casualties to explain his avoidance of a ground assault while thanking President Joe Biden for backing Israeli operations and offering to resupply Iron Dome, Israel’s vaunted missile defense shield.
“That’s so important to saving Israeli lives and, coincidentally, Palestinian lives,” Netanayhu said. “Without Iron Dome, we would have had to have a ground invasion of Gaza to stop them firing their missiles, and the casualty list would have soared to stratospheric heights.”
Airstrikes against the rocket arsenals and launchers could only be carried out with great difficulty, given the civilian setting and the ease with which the armaments can be hidden throughout Gaza.
“We would have wanted more time to strike additional rocket launchers because, at the end of the day, that is what threatens Israeli civilians,” the Israeli security official said. “I think we’ve dealt a severe blow to the support system of the rockets and the manufacturing system, but not enough, in terms of the rocket launchers themselves. And that’s important.”
Hamas suffered substantial losses in the form of human capital, according to the Israeli government, which targeted the personnel involved in the development of the rockets that enfiladed Israel in recent days.
“All of them very well trained and obviously, very talented individuals, trained in Iran, with lots of experience in engineering, chemistry propulsion, aerodynamics, etc.,” the Israeli security official said. “And they are really the ones who have been able to generate the military industry in Gaza, and they’ve been doing this very systematically.”
Still, Iranian leader Ali Khamenei celebrated the ceasefire as a white flag by Netanyahu. “The regime was forced to admit defeat,” the theocratic ruler said on Friday, per state media.
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The political posturing on all sides was bound to unfold, even as the smoke clears and the belligerents conduct their post-conflict assessments of the damage. “It will take a lot of time. … for Hamas to restore what’s been destroyed,” the Israeli security official said. “I’m not entirely sure that they will be able to do so because now, they are under the understanding that the underground isn’t safe anymore.”
