It’s nearly impossible for Clinton to surpass Obama’s pledged delegate lead, but that’s been apparent for some time. The question remains how heavily the uncommitted superdelegates must break in Clinton’s favor in order to cover the delegate gap. If the total delegate gap stays at about 130, Clinton would need to win 72 percent of the 303 uncommitted superdelegates. But there are 404 pledged delegates up for grabs in the remaining contests, and in a best case scenario for Clinton, she could make a net gain of 40 pledged delegates. In this case, Clinton would still need 64 percent of the uncommitted superdelegates. So the odds are long, but not “mathematically impossible” as some like to say. No matter what happens in the remaining contests, Clinton will need the uncommitted superdelegates to choose her over Obama 2 to 1, which is only conceivable if she wins the popular vote. And that’s certainly a possibility, especially if you count Florida. Lastly, it’s important to remember that pledged delegates are not bound by party rules to vote for Obama–another reason why Clinton might take this race all the way to the convention.
