The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration “predicts active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season,” according to a press release on the government agency’s website. The other alternative being offered by NOAA is that this year’s hurricane season will be “extremely active.”
“For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook says there is a 70 percent likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 7 to 11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher),” the agency predicts.
“These ranges are well above the seasonal average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.”
There are 3 factors:
A continuation of the atmospheric climate pattern, which includes a strong west African monsoon, that is responsible for the ongoing era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995;
Warmer-than-average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea; and
El Niño is not expected to develop and suppress hurricane formation
