CHICAGO (AP) — The European debt crisis. The presidential election. The Federal Reserve lowering its outlook for U.S. economic growth. China’s slowdown. Paltry interest rates for investors.
A lot is weighing on the minds of the money managers, advisers and other financial professionals attending Morningstar’s annual investment conference in Chicago this week.
Experts offered a variety of thoughts when The Associated Press asked their outlook for the rest of this year:
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“I don’t think the market does a lot from here. Europe is a work in progress and second-quarter earnings are not going to be very good in the United States.”
— Mario Gabelli, chairman and CEO of Gabelli Asset Management.
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“I wouldn’t be surprised to see the S&P 500 about where it is now. We’ve already gotten the 6 to 8 percent gain that people were hoping for and expecting. That’s not a bad year.”
— Matt Freund, portfolio manager, USAA.
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“The market probably is going to be stuck in a narrow trading range around where we are now until after the election. There’s a real confidence crisis among investors, especially after they got annihilated in ’08 and ’09. People freeze up when there’s so much uncertainty.”
— Jim Peters, CEO of Tactical Allocation Group, an investment management firm for ETF portfolios.
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“This is a contrarian viewpoint, but I actually think it’s good news for health care companies if Obama wins because they would get the benefit of added volumes through reform — if it’s around after the Supreme Court ruling.
Romney would be likely to defund health care, so you’d see the downside of reform without the additional volume.”
— Don Cleven, portfolio manager, Touchstone Mid Cap Value Fund.
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“Greece will stay in the euro zone and Europe will muddle through. Once we get through the panic, large multinational Europe-based companies like Siemens and ABB provide opportunities for growth.”
— Thyra Zerhusen, CEO and chief investment officer, Fairpointe Capital.
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“I see the global economy continuing to roll over absent any major new coordinated central bank and/or fiscal stimulus programs. I am looking for the S&P 500 to decline further into the 1100 range as we go into the fall, followed by a rally back up to around current levels by year’s end.”
— T. Doug Dale, chief investment officer for Security Ballew Wealth Management in Jackson, Miss.
