The housing market and house prices are the economy’s gift to journalists. For one thing, almost everybody either owns a house, is looking to buy one, or to sell one – and all want to know whether prices are going up, down, or sideways, whether buyers are in the saddle and ride sellers, or vice versa. The endless cocktail party chatter includes such serious stuff as whether higher interest rates will slow down sales (yes, other things being equal, which they never are), and such inane stuff as a seller, who bought a house for $400,000, one year later put it on the market for $500,000 before accepting an offer of $480,000, complaining about his $20,000 loss.

Right now in America forecasters are more than ever focused on the housing market, hoping it will boost a recovery that seems to be on pause or, if pessimists are to be believed, about to reverse. This flaccid recovery, the least vigorous since WWII, specializes in false dawns, as millions of job seekers well know, and as retailers were reminded in January and February. Which makes the housing market more important than ever. It can create or kill jobs in construction and in the production of appliances and furniture. And rising house prices drive up wealth and confidence, key drivers of the hoped-for resumption of growth in the 3+ percent range. It is not quite the case that as housing goes so goes the economy, but a robust recovery is unlikely without a growing housing sector.