The true number of coronavirus cases at the epicenter of the outbreak could be 10 times higher than what Chinese officials have reported, according to new research.
As of Friday, the number of cases of the coronavirus has officially reached at least 9,800, with 213 deaths, according to the World Health Organization and Chinese data. Hong Kong-based outside researchers estimated in an analysis released Friday, however, that the actual number of people infected in Wuhan could actually be about 75,815.
“Given that 2019-nCoV is no longer contained within Wuhan, other major Chinese cities are probably sustaining localised outbreaks,” researchers reported in the Lancet, a major medical journal. “Large cities overseas with close transport links to China could also become outbreak epicentres.”
The researchers arrived at the figure by analyzing the numbers of inbound and outbound flights at Wuhan’s international airport, taking into consideration the period of time in which the outbreak has been at its height. They looked at the number of cases that had shown up in cities outside of mainland China as a baseline and then measured how many people had flown into Wuhan before symptom onset, taking into consideration how quickly the virus is believed to spread.
Just one day earlier, upon announcing that the coronavirus constituted a public health emergency of international concern, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said he still has total confidence in the Chinese government to control the virus.
“We would have seen many more cases outside China by now, and probably deaths, if it were not for the government’s efforts, and the progress they have made to protect their own people and the people of the world,” Tedros said Thursday.
The researchers in Friday’s report did not say outright that the Chinese government has downplayed the severity of transmission rates. However, they call into question whether efforts taken globally to mitigate further spreading of the virus are effective. In fact, they call the impact of quarantining Wuhan on transmission rates “negligible” because cases outside of Wuhan had already surpassed 800.
“Given that Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen together accounted for more than 50% of all outbound international air travel in mainland China, other countries would likely be at risk of experiencing 2019-nCoV epidemics during the first half of 2020,” they wrote.
Other nations have undertaken measures to keep the virus outside of their borders. For instance, the U.S. State Department issued a warning Thursday to avoid travel to China altogether.
Russia has closed its border with China and blocked Chinese tour groups from entering the country, Japan has initiated airlifts to get its citizens out of Wuhan, and Indian airlines have canceled many flights to China.
Tedros and the WHO emergency committee discouraged foreign governments from issuing travel restrictions and other preventative measures, including turning people away at their borders and refusing visas.
“There is no reason for measures that unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade,” Tedros said Thursday.
In addition to reporting that placing such restrictions on travel to Wuhan are ineffective, researchers wrote in the Lancet that the spread of the virus is likely to continue, given the rise in person-to-person transmission cases.
“As such, given the substantial volume of case importation from Wuhan, local epidemics are probably already growing exponentially in multiple major Chinese cities,” they said.
