The top U.S. general in Europe believes one of the reasons Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to invade Ukraine is because he thought he might have been able to exploit potential divisions in NATO caused by the Taliban’s rapid takeover of Afghanistan.
Gen. Tod Wolters, the Supreme Allied Commander for Europe, made the comments in front of the House Armed Services Committee on Wednesday, after Rep. Jim Banks, an Indiana Republican, asked why Putin decided to invade on Feb. 24 rather than some other time since 2014.
The general said Afghanistan was among Putin’s reasons.
“I think he felt like he had popular support of the citizens of Russia,” Wolters said. “I also felt like he was attempting to take advantage of fissures that could have appeared in NATO as a result of the post-Afghanistan environment. And I also think that it has to do with his age and his efficacy.”
The general said: “All those combined together put him in a position to where he elected to go at this time, but the overriding variable in my view is the fact that he believes that he has popular support with his citizens.”
The Taliban rapidly took over following a chaotic U.S. military withdrawal last year, and an August suicide bombing at the airport in Kabul, Afghanistan, by the Islamic State killed 13 U.S. service members during evacuation efforts at the airport, with the Taliban providing security outside.
The Pentagon confirmed in March that it had not conducted any strikes against ISIS’s Afghan affiliate since the United States exited the country seven months ago.
Republicans have long connected the disastrous withdrawal to Putin’s decision to invade his neighbor six months later.
On the day of Putin’s invasion, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said: “I think the precipitous withdrawal from Afghanistan in August was a signal, to Putin and maybe to Chinese President Xi as well, that America was in retreat, that America could not be depended upon, and was an invitation to the autocrats of the world that maybe this was a good time to make a move.”
He added: “The combination of a perception of weakness and a yearning for empire is what led to the war in Ukraine.”
CHINA PORTRAYS ITSELF AS PEACEMAKER IN UKRAINE AND AFGHANISTAN
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley reportedly told Congress behind closed doors in early February that Kyiv could be conquered by Russia within 72 hours of a full-scale invasion.
In comparison, both Milley and President Joe Biden, as well as the rest of the administration, appeared to overestimate the strength and the willpower of the Afghan army ahead of the Taliban’s takeover.
The invasion of Ukraine came after weeks of warnings by the U.S. intelligence community that Putin was likely to invade. Biden indicated in January he believed a Russian victory in Ukraine would essentially be certain.
Democratic Rep. Donald Norcross asked Wolters on Wednesday if the U.S. had overestimated Russia or underestimated Ukraine, and the general seemed to indicate it was “a little bit of both.”
Wolters pointed to “the will and determination of the Ukrainian citizens,” as well as how Russia has been “challenged” strategically and tactically. Wolters added the U.S. “may have” overestimated Russia’s military.
Republican Rep. Scott DesJarlais asked how concerned the general is “about what appears to be intel failures” and asked what that meant related to China’s threats toward Taiwan.
“The world of a 21st-century intel officer is very difficult. … I agree that we’ve had some tremendous work conducted by the intelligence community,” Wolters said. “This one has been baffling as a result of Russia’s challenges and the spirit of the Ukrainian citizens.”
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier admitted this month that he had botched the assessment of Ukraine’s will to fight, saying: “My view was that, based on a variety of factors, that the Ukrainians were not as ready as I thought they should be. Therefore, I questioned their will to fight. That was a bad assessment on my part because they have fought bravely and honorably.”
