SurveyUSA has released its final batch of North Carolina numbers. In the primary eve SUSA poll, Obama leads by five. Here are some analytical goodies for your Endless Campaign of ’08 Scrapbook:
If one were of a mind too, one could interpret many of these data-points to the Lioness of Tuzla’s advantage. Because I’m not a member of the Strange New Respect for Hillary Club, the exercise has little appeal to me, but since I’m blogging this poll first, I should do so anyway. So… Hillary has reliably outperformed even the most reliable polls. Obama’s dependence on young voters who are more likely to eschew the tedium of voting compared to their elderly fellow voters probably explains this phenomenon. Also noteworthy is that Clinton is once again showing impressive momentum among the late deciders. We also have yet more evidence with this poll that Obama’s popularity peaked a while ago, and Hillary is now the better liked candidate. The fact that Obama pulls his support from liberals who will support the Democratic ticket anyway is the kind of thing that theoretically might matter to your typical, everyday Super Delegate. Still, Clinton’s only hope is that she outperforms even the good polls once again. She needs the win. But making up five points is a heavy lift. That said, a double digit win in Indiana and a shocking, razor-thin victory in North Carolina could actually change the race. And that scenario, while unlikely, is not out of the question.
