Anybody who thinks Mitt Romney has the 2012 Republican presidential nomination in the bag is probably smoking something illegal. Yes, the delegate count looks good for him and he’s got the key money and organization advantages required for the long run.
But he still hasn’t gained the one thing he absolutely must have in order to beat President Obama in November – the trust and support of the conservative majority of the Republican faithful. And there is probably only one way for him to overcome this lethal flaw.
Romney must go to the faithful, openly and honestly address their objections one by one, and then offer them clear-cut, straightforward promises of what he will do if he is elected to assuage their worries. Failure to do this invites a catastrophic coalescing of his heretofore divided opposition. And unfortunately, even if he tries, there are no guarantees that he will succeed in this critically important endeavour.
In short, as JFK went to the Baptist ministers in Houston and took on their biggest fears about a Catholic being in the White House, so Romney must find a forum on the Right in which he can do the same with the majority of Republicans who have consistently voted against him thus far in the 2012 presidential primary season.
The numbers following Romney’s Super Tuesday sweep of six of the 10 contests look great for him in terms of the delegate count. But he is like the proverbial frog swimming the pot that is primed to boil over. That is another way of saying the former Massachusetts governor now faces the very real possibility of being blown out of the race in a dramatic shift in the underlying dynamic of the campaign.
RedState’s Erick Erickson has the numbers this morning that make this clear: Through Super Tuesday, Romney has won 39.3 percent of the votes cast since the Iowa caucus in January. His conservative rivals – Santorum, Gingrich, et. al. have gained slightly more than 40 percent, and his libertarian opponents – Paul and Gary Johnson – garnered the remaining 11 percent.
We’re now in the third month of primaries and Romney still can’t win over 60 percent of the voters he must have to be victorious in November. If that 60 percent ceases to be divided and becomes united behind Santorum – now the most likely beneficiary of such a coalescing – Romney is toast.
The crucial issue for Romney is not his Mormon religion, it is whether he can be trusted to do what he says he will do. Washington politicians generally are among the least credible figures in American public life, but none more so than moderate Republicans aka RINOs.
Romney has said all the right things such as promising to repeal Obamacare, balance the budget and keep America’s military might the best in the world, but the Republican faithful have heard that before from the two Bushes in the White House and from the succession of GOP congressional leaders since the Contract with America in 1995.
These are the same GOP leaders who presided over a disastrous tax increase, TARP bailouts of Wall Street and Detroit, Bridges to Nowhere earmarks, the federalization of education under No Child Left Behind, and explosions of federal spending and regulation that, prior to Obama, were without precedent.
That is the fundamental reason why the grassroots Republican majority doesn’t trust Romney, and frankly aren’t inclinced to trust any professional politician in Washington (Santorum better be careful because he’s not immune from this proble, either, but for different reasons). Romney must find a way to persuade them that he can be trusted and that he understands why they don’t now.
Example: Romney says he’s against Cap-and-Trade, but two of his closest economic advisors are advocates of it. Romney defends Romneycare as appropriate for his state, but 50 percent of Massachusetts voters on Tuesday told exit pollsters the program went too far. He says he’s pro-life, but he made personal contributions to Planned Parenthood.
These are the kinds of things that must be addressed persuasively and credibly. It’s not enough, for example, to say he had a change-of-heart on the abortion issue and thus wouldn’t contribute now to Planned Parenthood. He must promise to defund that organization and every other liberal ideological advocacy group receiving tax dollars from the federal government.
It’s not clear to me that Romney’s strategists understand the great peril their man now faces or how little time is left for him to confront this fact. Richard Viguerie earlier this week called on Newt Gingrich to make up his mind whether he wants to be a kingmaker or a spoiler:
“In the aftermath of Super Tuesday two things are clear: ‘not Mitt Romney’ is still getting the most votes in Republican nominating contests and Newt Gingrich holds the key to nominating a conservative Republican candidate for President.
“Looking at last night’s numbers, it has become increasing clear that the former Speaker can either be a kingmaker or a spoiler, because, to unite conservatives, Gingrich would have to suspend his campaign and endorse Rick Santorum for the Republican nomination for President.
“Speaker Gingrich’s ‘campaign of ideas’ has kept him in the race and contributed mightily to the debate, but the results of Super Tuesday show that, going forward, ideas without the campaign infrastructure to sell them are not enough to compete with Romney’s money and establishment backing.”
Viguerie is one of the few conservative leaders possessing sufficient sway with the former House Speaker to get him to listen to reason. Gingrich cannot win the GOP nomination, but he can clear the way for somebody else to do it, either Romney or Santorum.
And Viguerie chose exactly the right words to bring this fact home to Gingrich, explaining that “as the astute student of history that he is, Speaker Gingrich is unique among the candidates in his ability to appreciate that the greatest acts of patriotism always involve a measure of self-sacrifice, such as setting aside one’s personal ambitions in favor of what is best for your country.”
Odds are Gingrich will face reality and withdraw, most likely following the Alabama and Mississippi primaries on March 13 where Santorum is likely to administer the coup de grace to the Georgian’s last-gasp Southern strategy.
At that point, the race becomes Santorum’s to lose. If Romney fails to do the JFK before March 13, doing so afterwards will risk appearing fatally desperate and calculating, thus reinforcing conservative opposition rather than softening it.
Put another way, Romney has very little time left to do the single most important thing he must do if he is to be the GOP nominee in 2012.
