Predictions that Obamacare-related actions by the Trump administration and Republicans would lead to spikes in premiums and insurer exits appear to have been off the mark, a new analysis suggests.
The analysis, assembled by the Associated Press and the consulting firm Avalere health, found that premiums for Obamacare customers are expected to rise by a mild 3.6 percent on average, after increasing by an average of 30 percent in 2018 and by an average of 27 percent in 2017.
The premium hikes are modest despite the latest changes to the healthcare law. As part of the tax law, Republicans have zeroed out, starting in 2019, the fine for going uninsured, known as the “individual mandate,” and the Trump administration is allowing people to buy plans outside of Obamacare’s rules.
Still, the mild rate changes suggest that premiums are stabilizing and that insurers are feeling more confident about doing business in the exchanges. Insurers are also choosing to enter more areas in 19 states across the country, which will give consumers more options for coverage.
The analysis looks at premiums across 47 states. In 41 of them, premiums are expected to rise by no more than 10 percent, or to fall. The customers who buy the plans tend to be self-employed or to work for a small business that doesn’t provide coverage.
One of the reasons the premiums are tempered is that insurers overshot their rate proposals when they applied to sell plans for this year. This has resulted in more profits but also means that when they apply in states, they have to provide evidence to officials about the math behind their rates.
Ahead of the midterm elections, Democrats had intended to point to rate increases as evidence that the Trump administration and Republicans had “sabotaged” the law. Instead, they have largely shifted their rhetoric to focus on a lawsuit in which the Justice Department is asking a court to gut protections for people with pre-existing illnesses.
Experts are careful to note that despite the tempered growth in premiums, the costs are still too high for millions of Americans. Premiums will cost a little over an average of $600 a month, and roughly 7 million people who have the plans don’t qualify for help.
But the 10 million people who receive subsidies under Obamacare, meaning individuals making roughly $48,000 a month, are shielded from premium increases each year. Some are even able to buy plans for $0 a month because of how much the government kicks in.
What Obamacare customers ultimately pay for premiums varies not only based on their income, but where they live, whether they smoke, and their age.
