Texas, long the great white whale for the Democratic Party, may stay red this November after all.
For years, shifting demographics in the state stemming from Hispanic immigration and transplants from California, have given Democrats hope that they could finally elect a senator from their party to office, or even see the state back a Democratic presidential candidate.
But that dream still seems out of reach, just as it did in 2018, 2016, 2014, and 2012.
A review of polling averages shows what an uphill battle winning Texas remains for the Democratic Party. According to RealClearPolitics, President Trump maintains a 3.2-point lead over Democratic nominee Joe Biden, the former vice president and 36-year Delaware senator. The last two polls of the state, released at the end of September, show Trump with a 4- and 5-point lead, respectively.
In 2016, the president won Texas by 9 points. That win was nearly 7 points fewer than what Mitt Romney earned in 2012, but the president’s margin of victory in the state still raises questions about why Democrats thought Texas was up for grabs this time around.
And Democrats have sunk tens, if not hundreds, of millions of dollars trying to get members of their party elected to Senate or gubernatorial offices over the last decade. Biden and his allies have dropped eight figures into the states, including a $5.2 million television ad campaign set to air this month in the Houston and Dallas markets.
A Democrat hasn’t won Texas since 1976, when voters there supported challenger Jimmy Carter over incumbent Republican Gerald Ford. That fact hasn’t stopped Democrats from thinking the way to flip the state begins at statewide elections instead of presidential ones.
On Wednesday, Democratic Senate candidate MJ Hegar announced her campaign to unseat Republican incumbent John Cornyn raised another $13.5 million in the third quarter. That figure represented nearly 8 times her previous best fundraising quarter, although still less than Cornyn’s $14.5 million he has banked away.
Those cash hauls aren’t translating into strong polling for Hegar, who is running 8 points behind Cornyn, according to a RealClearPolitics average of recent polls. A survey released by the University of Massachusetts Lowell at the end of September saw Cornyn’s lead at 10 points over Hegar, showing his resiliency even as the president’s numbers remain relatively weak in the state. In 2014, Cornyn won reelection by 27.2 points.
Of course, Hegar’s fundraising pales in comparison to the kind of money brought in by former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke, who ran for Sen. Ted Cruz’s Senate seat in 2018. During the third quarter of that year, O’Rourke brought in a jaw-dropping $38.1 million.
Despite what seemed like a real opportunity for Democrats in an election year where the party saw a wave of victories and remarkably low likability ratings for Cruz, O’Rourke came up short by over 2.5 points.
At the gubernatorial level, Democrats see a victory just one cycle away as well. In 2018, incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott trounced his challenger, Democrat Lupe Valdez, by over 13 points.
Democrats haven’t won the governorship in Texas since Ann Richards in 1990, but that hasn’t stopped liberals around the country from sending checks to rising members of their party there. In 2014, Democratic nominee Wendy Davis managed to outraise Abbott for several quarters, thanks, in large part, to wealthy bankrollers in California and New York.
That money was all for naught by Election Day, when Abbott trounced Davis by 21 points.
