Sen. Marco Rubio is risking his political future on an uncertain re-election bid.
The former presidential candidate, who came perhaps one New Hampshire debate performance away from becoming the front-runner for the Republican Party’s 2016 nomination, reversed course and is running for a second term after vowing for the past two years that it was the White House or bust.
Rubio’s future now rests on winning re-election to the Senate, but he faces a rocky road after Florida Republicans rejected him in favor of Donald Trump in a March 15 presidential primary. Losing his home state twice in one year would be a devastating blow, possibly one from which he couldn’t recover.
Blocking Rubio’s path to victory is a possible competitive GOP primary and higher voter turnout in the general election that could benefit his Democratic opponent. Then there’s Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, whom he disagrees with on key issues and whose controversies could be a drag on his campaign.
Rubio faces an Aug. 30 primary against self-funding, wealthy real estate developer Carlos Beruff and possibly a few others who are declining to clear the way for his re-nomination (some have dropped out, including Rubio ally, Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera.)
Beruff and others are attacking Rubio as a career establishment insider who is more interested in career advancement than public service. “This isn’t Marco Rubio’s seat; this is Florida’s seat,” Beruff said in a statement reacting to the senator’s decision to get into the race. Assuming Rubio wins, he is likely to face Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy in November.
A new poll from Quinnipiac University showed Rubio with a wide lead over Murphy despite Hillary Clinton’s equally wide lead over Trump. But Democrats say they are confident about their chances.
They view Rubio’s absence from the Senate during the presidential campaign as damaging and are accusing him of using the jihadist terrorist attack in Orlando earlier this month as an excuse to change plans and enter the race.
Democrats view Trump as a liability for Rubio, as they made clear a statement from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the Democratic Party’s Senate campaign arm.
“Sen. Rubio simply couldn’t be bothered to show up for work, and when he asked Florida voters for a promotion in the Presidential primary, they swiftly shut him down and handed him a nearly 20 point loss to Donald Trump,” DSCC spokeswoman Sadie Weiner said in a statement.
“That’s the same Donald Trump who Rubio called a “con artist” who couldn’t be trusted with the nuclear codes who he has now heartily endorsed and will be forced to run alongside,” she said.
In announcing on Monday his intention to seek re-election, Rubio signaled that he would try and thread the needle by running against both Trump and Clinton. Rubio is framing his candidacy as a way for Florida voters to put a check on the White House, regardless of who wins in November.
It’s an unusual strategy in a presidential, as opposed to a midterm, cycle, in part because Rubio has endorsed Trump.
“No matter who is elected president, there is reason for worry,” Rubio, 45, said.
The senator included that line in a lengthy prepared statement, but also repeated it multiple interviews he sat for to discuss his decision to change his mind and run for re-election.
“With Hillary Clinton, we would have four more years of the same failed economic policies that have left us with a stagnant economy. We would have four more years of the same failed foreign policy,” Rubio said.
“The prospect of a Trump presidency is also worrisome to me. It is no secret that I have significant disagreements with Donald Trump,” he added. “Some of his statements, especially about women and minorities, I find not just offensive but unacceptable. If he is elected, we will need senators willing to encourage him in the right direction, and if necessary, stand up to him.”
Rubio’s first Senate campaign wasn’t easy. But the circumstances were different.
Then, the former speaker of the Florida House of Representatives was an unknown conservative insurgent challenging a popular sitting governor in a GOP primary. Rubio was opposed by the GOP establishment but captured the imagination and support of a budding Tea Party movement.
Rubio eventually chased then-Gov. Charlie Crist out of the party and won a three-way race in the general election, buoyed by one of the strongest Republican wave elections in generations. This time around the party has coalesced around Rubio, making him the insiders’ choice.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., led the charge to convince Rubio to reconsider his previous decision to retire; Rubio’s network of wealthy donors and bundlers were also rooting for him to run.
However, Rubio also is picking up some of the same support from conservatives that propelled his 2010 campaign. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, his rival in the presidential primary, has endorsed him, as has the Club for Growth, a free-market advocacy group.
“It’s a competitive environment, but he starts the race with a lot more going for him than he had six years ago,” Rubio adviser Alex Conant said. “He has national donor network and has a grassroots network across Florida that’s hugely supportive of him.”
